Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE THAT DROVE COMPLEX
THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING HAVE CLEARED SKIES OVER MOST OF CWA.
EXCEPTION IS SLOW EROSION OF STRATUS DECK OVER WRN CWA. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG NEBRASKA/S DAKOTA BORDER IN REGION OF SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR OVER WRN S DAKOTA. IN
SPITE OF MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE QPF THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TOO
RAPID A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE REGION...ABOVE
MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE AND MIXED LAYER CIN ACROSS ALMOST OF WI AND
BACK ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IOWA WILL PREVENT MUCH GETTING GOING
UNTIL WAVE MOVES INTO REGION. WILL TIME CHANCES OF NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

THIS WILL NOT BRING PCPN INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST...AND MOST LIKELY AFTER 06Z WHEN COMBINATION OF
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WAVE WILL EXPAND CONVECTION INTO EXPECTED
MCS.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOWER WITH CORFIDI VECTORS AND DIFLUENT
THICKNESSES INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS CONVECTION APPROACHES
SWRN WI. THIS REFLECTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK LIMITED TO THE FAR WRN
CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS CWA WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST.

WITH EXPECTED SWD MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE
WILL LEAN TOWARD LESS WIDESPREAD PCPN ON LOCAL WRF20 FOR REST OF THE
DAY MONDAY. CLOUD DEBRIS AND PCPN WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY HIGHS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

RESULTANT BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND TIMING ISSUES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT A GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT LIKELY DRY TIMES WITH LOWR POPS/QPF. DEVELOPING
EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENT
MUCH DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WAS
FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

POSITIONING AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES STILL PROBLEMATIC IN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN U.S. APPEARS WEAK SFC HIGH AND ENOUGH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY...AND DELAY NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WAA AHEAD OF DEEP
500 MB TROUGH. SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB
TROUGH PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT OVERNIGHT TO BRING ANOTHER DRY
DAY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM GUIDANCE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS VS CLEARING WITH EACH
WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS IA/MN. WILL BANK ON
COMPLEX EVOLVING THERE AND SPREADING IN LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS.
INCLUDED PATCHY MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT TOO. MET/MAV HITTING IT
PRETTY HARD AT KENW AND KMSN...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW GIVEN LACK OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS....BUT TIMING OF ADVANCING CLOUD COVER
FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY END UP BEING KEY AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS
WORSEN BELOW MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...WAKE LOW COMBINED WITH DECENT MIXING/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...RESULTING IN A SUSTAINED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME.
THIS PROMPTED SMALL CRAFT ISSUANCE. WINDS NOW DROPPING BELOW
CRITERIA SO WILL CANCEL HEADLINE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...10

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