Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM WEDNESDAY...MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
ERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AS OF 9 AM. BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE OUTER
BANKS AND WILL LEAVE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW A MIXED BAG IN TERMS OF
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR BUT CAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND MINUS 7. LATEST RUN OF
THE 4 KM WRF ALONG WITH NAM12/GFS INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HAVE
UPPER POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS REGION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUING TO HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH PULSE SEVERE WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS. VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS/WET BULB ZERO SHOULD LIMIT
THE HAIL THREAT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE 30-50 PERCENT
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. TAIL END OF FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO HELD ON
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER WEATHER THEN
MAKES A RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PASSES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH LINGERING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT ERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SMALL POPS REAPPEARING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWER CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AT ALL BUT
KPGV THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PUSH ALL
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY MIDDAY. WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND
KISO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR SCU CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY LOWER INTO IFR RANGE 10Z-12Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 12Z AND CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FCST PREVAILING
AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME CONCERN THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING SW OF AREA WILL SPREAD NE AND RESULT IN PERIOD OF MVFR
LATE MORNING INTO AFTN AT LEAST AT KISO/KPGV. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS FOR ADJUSTMENT WITH 12Z TAF
ISSUANCES. SCT CONVECTIVE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
EVENING..AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER STRATUS/FOG CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT.

TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND THUR WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA SAT-SUN. VFR PREVAILING
OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST AS
WINDS/SEAS REMAIN LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL BLEND AND PREVIOUS FCST USED FOR FCST. CURRENT E-SE WINDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER TO S TODAY AS SFC HIGH TO NE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND STALLED FRONT TO S RETURNS N. MODELS AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OF SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW...AND NE SURGE OF 10-15 KTS SPREADING S
OVER WATERS ON FRI AS PUSHES S AND HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS TO N.
WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER BACK TO S-SW OVER WEEKEND.

BLEND OF WW3/SWAN AND PREVIOUS FCST USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS MAINLY
AROUND 2 FEET DURING PERIOD...EXCEPT BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FT WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRI WITH NE SURGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/CTC
MARINE...JBM/CTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-170900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
317 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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