Winter Storm Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
831 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO REDUCE CLOUD
COVER A BIT OVER THE REGION AND DROPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...NEAR-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST
COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...YIELDING SOME SUN OVER
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND THE EAST SIDE. SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENTS
ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A SHASTA VALLEY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS THIS FEATURE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...MORE
POTENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND WINDS...WILL ARRIVE AT THE OREGON
COAST MONDAY. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER SATELLITE ARE
1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN TOTALS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMEPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW LEVELS DIP TO
NEAR 5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE TO DROP TO 4000 FEET
BY TUESDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ABOUT HEADLINES
REGARDING COASTAL WIND AND CASCADE MOUNTAIN SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION...HIGH SEAS...AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND LOCATIONS
WILL BE FOCUSED ON TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DROP AGAIN TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL IMPACT MOST HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. INLAND VALLEYS
AND EAST SIDE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010/

DISCUSSION...GENERALLY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM FORECAST OF A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WAS UPGRADED
TO A WARNING. BUT...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CONTINUED FOR THE CASCADES
RATHER THAN UPGRADED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
QUITE REACH WARNING LEVELS AND BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING THAT SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5500 TO 6000 FEET. THUS...IT
SEEMED PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE A FINAL DETERMINATION
OF THE NEED FOR ANY SNOWFALL RELATED HEADLINES.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND TODAY. ITS MAIN FEATURE IS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH
WARRANTED CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT...WINDS AT WEED HAVE PEAKED AT
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 42 MPH BUT STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
AROUND SUNRISE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE DECREASE IN WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND I ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY DUE TO THE
SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE HIGH WINDS AND HIGH SURF AT THE COAST AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT WITH MAINLY
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER BOUT OF POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THE 3 FRONTS WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN CURRY COUNTY WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ON COOS...JOSEPHINE...
DOUGLAS AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS GOOD BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE
TRACK OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
I HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT STILL KEEPS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. WITH EITHER SOLUTION...THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THE COAST...NORTHERN OREGON OR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF FAVORS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MORE NORTHERLY AND
PROGRESSIVE GFS FAVORS AREAS TO THE NORTH.

WEAK RIDGING WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
BY THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR ORZ027-028.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010

ORZ021-022-290000-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
812 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. PLEASE SEE
WEATHER MESSAGES FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ081-290000-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
812 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ027-028-290000-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
812 AM PDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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