Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
102 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...16/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND IT WILL IMPACT THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG JET IS NOW RUNNING ALONG 35N BETWEEN 140E AND
160W...AND IT WILL MIGRATE EAST TO RUN FROM 150E TO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVES RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE JET WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. AS THE JET APPROACHES...THE TRAJECTORY OF
THESE INCOMING SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE OVER CALIFORNIA FROM TUESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE AND IT WILL HAVE A MINIMAL
IMPACT WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FALLING ALONG THE
COAST.  THE FIRST STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR 40N 135W NORTHEAST TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA AWAY FROM THE CAPES. WINDS MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
LOOKS LIKELY IN THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEYS...SO WILL ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY. IT WILL BE WEAKER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG 130W...SO IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON THE CWA. THE THIRD SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE WEAKER STILL AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN WITH ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS IS SNOW...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE WET IN THOSE
AREAS WITH SNOW LEVELS RUNNING 4000-5000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ADJUST THE EFFECTIVE TIMES AS WELL.

THE FOURTH SYSTEM...WHICH WILL COME IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...IS THE ODD ONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE THE DEEPEST
LOW OF THE ENTIRE SET. GIVEN THAT THE JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WOULDN'T EXPECT THE LOW TO DEEPEN FROM 968 TO 965 MB AS IT
MOVES FROM FROM 40N 130W WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 42N 128W WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHAT THE GFS DOES. IT DOES WEAKEN IT
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...LEAVING A 975 MB LOW WEST OF NEWPORT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 16/12Z ENSEMBLES INDICATE TWO CLUSTERS OF
LOW POSITIONS...ONE NEAR SHORE AND THE OTHER FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION IS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST IN THE
NEAREST CLUSTER...SO IT CAN BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE OTHER
MEMBERS DO HAVE DEEPENING LOWS...BUT MOST ONLY DEEPEN IT 1-2 MB.
LIKE THE MORE MODERATE SOLUTIONS OVERALL.

THE TRANSITION OUT OF THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES WEST AS
THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH TODAY...THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH THICK MID AND HIGH DECKS AND INCREASED WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
        NIGHT FOR CAZ080-CAZ082-CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4
        PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
       FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
       FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370.

15/10/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
557 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

CAZ083-170100-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
557 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080-082-170100-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
557 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ABOVE 4000 FEET. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW REEDSPORT         43.68N 124.18W
01/16/2010  M1.28 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12HR TOTAL FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

STOCKTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.32W
01/16/2010  M1.80 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1800 PST FRIDAY THROUGH 0800 SATURDAY.

&&

STOCKTON