Wind Advisory 38, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 AM PST FRI DEC 10 2010

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR OREGON AREAS. MORNING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONSISTENT GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 31. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL WIND
TREND AT SUMMER LAKE HAS BEEN UP...WHEREAS THE MODELS WOULD
INDICATE CONDITIONS LEVELING OFF NOW. THUS...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THESE WINDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE ADVISORY
WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED. LUTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM PST FRI DEC 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING SITUATION AND THE BEST
VERIFYING MODEL GUIDANCE.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MORNING SPOTTER
REPORTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MESOWEST SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT OCCURRED IN CURRY...COOS...AND DOUGLAS
WITH MOST OF THIS HAVING OCCURRED GREATER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.
24 HOUR AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION LOCATIONS INDICATE 1
TO 2 INCHES. A LOOK AT MORNING RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATES THAT
ALL BUT THE NORTH UMPQUA RIVER AND THE CHETCO ARE BELOW THE
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED RISES. THESE WILL...OF COURSE...BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE RECORDED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION INPUT DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.

MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK INDICATING A WET WET AND VERY WARM WARM
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILLS END SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE NEARLY ALL ARE PEAKS BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWPACK IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WILL ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT MELT OFF. MORE LIKELY...THE
WATER CONTENT OF THE PACK WILL INCREASE WITH ONLY SOME RUNOFF
ADDING TO LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL FOR AREA RIVERS.

AFTER MORE HIGHER ELEVATION RAINS ON MONDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LUTZ

AVIATION...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE
COAST...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BE A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS...TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSITION TO ALL VFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.

BTL/MTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
104 PM PST FRI DEC 10 2010

ORZ031-110000-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
104 PM PST FRI DEC 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER