High Wind Watch 4, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
337 AM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...QUICKLY AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVED UP THE
COAST LAST NIGHT WITH PEAK WINDS OF 114 MPH AT CAPE BLANCO...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY. THE WINDS WITH THIS WAVE DO NOT
APPEAR AS STRONG...BUT WE FELT EXTENDING THE STORM AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING WAS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF THE
INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL MIXING OF MUCH
STRONGER UPPER WINDS WITHIN THIS AREA. GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS WITH 60 MPH AT THE BEACHES AROUND
CAPE BLANCO TO NEAR GOLD BEACH. THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SHASTA
REGION HAS ALSO INCREASED AND HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SHASTA VALLEY FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA
AREA. THE CURRENT WARNINGS ARE LEFT IN TACT AND THE SNOW LEVEL IS
HOVERING JUST ABOVE MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW WATCH
TO COVER ANOTHER INCREASING SURGE OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE
HEAVY SNOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TOTALS
THERE FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS HAVE EXCEEDED 4 INCHES...AND IT LOOKS
LIKE AT LEAST ANOTHER 4 INCHES IS A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE FOR WHAT
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTH COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND WE'RE EXPECTING A 965-970 MB LOW TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130W
FROM JUST SOUTH OF 40N. FOR THIS...WE'VE ISSUED ANOTHER HIGH WIND
WATCH...FOR THE COAST AND SHASTA VALLEY. THOUGH THE LOW APPEARS TO
GET FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WE FELT STARTING THE
WATCH AT 4PM WAS BEST AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR A WHILE
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY WON'T MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE LOW
CENTER MOVES NORTH.

THE PRECIP TOTALS NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW KEEPS DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN PLAY. HAVE DECREASED SOME POPS FROM
MEDFORD NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN TODAY AS A SHORT
WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE OREGON SOUTH COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING NORTH BEND IS EXPECTED. INLAND...
IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AROUND THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY IN HEAVY RAIN/SNOW. NORTHWARD ACROSS MEDFORD AND
KLAMATH FALLS...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-
     ORZ022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-
     CAZ082-CAZ083.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CAZ080-CAZ082-CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-
     PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.

STAVISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
417 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

ORZ021-022-191600-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
417 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE MESSAGES FOR
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY. THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ083-191600-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
417 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.
PLEASE SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 AM PST
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ082-191600-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
417 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET. PLEASE SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 AM PST
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080-191600-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
417 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AT 4 AM PST FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. PLEASE SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM PST TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.