High Surf Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
815 PM PDT FRI APR 2 2010

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SO WE ARE LETTING THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. COLDEST UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ARE PUSHING THROUGH
WESTERN OREGON AT THIS TIME WITH -34C AND -32C OBSERVED AT 500
MILLIBARS AT SALEM AND MEDFORD RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z. 00Z MODELS
DON'T INDICATE IT'LL GET MUCH COLDER THAN THAT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED THIS EVENING ACROSS COOS COUNTY SHOULD END
AS THE COLD POOL LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO TWEAK POPS AND WEATHER AND QPF PER
CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS AND NEW 00Z MODEL DATA BUT NO MAJOR
REVISIONS. POTENTIAL HIGH SURF WARNING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...ITS ON THE CUSP AS OF 8 PM BUT AWAITING
ANOTHER OBSERVATION BEFORE POTENTIALLY UPGRADING THE ADVISORY.
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WARNING CONDITIONS BUT WARY OF THE
NUMBERS AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A BAD HABIT LATELY OF OVERDOING IT.
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 3-6 INCHES LOOKING REASONABLE...HIGHEST
IN THE CRATER LAKE REGION. LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT. STAVISH

&&

.AVIATION...MTNS OBSCURED WITH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES
HOVERING JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. INLAND FROM THE COAST...EXPECT
THAT CLOUD BASES WILL FILL IN TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES AREAS OF MVFR THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN OUT TO MAINLY VFR IN THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS EASING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI APR 2 2010/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...SATURDAY: WITH COLD -28C TO -31C
500 HPA TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND THE AREA AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING.

SUNDAY: A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARDS THE AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA. DESPITE THIS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY GENERATE MORE
HAZARDS IN THE FUTURE. MODELS DO INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SO THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE WINTRY WEATHER
FOR THIS AREA. WIND PROFILES LOOK WEAKER THAN TODAYS FRONT SO IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS THE CURRENT FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

MONDAY: SIMILAR TO SATURDAY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH AN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY PATTERN REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
SUGDEN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
12Z GFS INDICATES ANOTHER FROPA WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR MODEL.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET
     FOR ORZ025.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     SUNDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
435 PM PDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     SNOW             1 S MOUNT SHASTA        41.31N 122.32W
04/02/2010  M5.0 INCH        SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 11 AM PDT.

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW MERLIN             42.46N 123.49W
04/02/2010  M0.95 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 5AM PDT. 6.5 HOUR AMOUNT.

0230 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 S MOUNT SHASTA        41.31N 122.32W
04/02/2010  M10.0 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 5AM PDT. 9.5 HOUR AMOUNT. 5 INCHES
            OCCURRED IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS, THEN 5 MORE IN JUST 3.5
            HOURS.

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 SSW WEED              41.36N 122.42W
04/02/2010  M7.0 INCH        SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            430 AM TO 430 PM.

&&

GLASER