High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 AM PST MON JAN 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY FROM ASHLAND TO
TALENT IS EXPERIENCING WIND ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH. THE 12Z RAOB SHOWS THAT 18-20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
ABOVE KMFR...HOWEVER...THIS IS ABOVE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS INVERSION BREAKING WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 10 AM FOR THE ROGUE
VALLEY AS IS. ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERN IS WARM ADVECTION WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE COAST AND THE EASTERN DESERTS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN WIND SHOW IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE CHANGES RIGHT NOW FOR THIS
UPDATE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING FOR KMFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF FOG. WIND SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FOR
KMFR TODAY AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL UNDERNEATH A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WHILE 18-20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY AT 2000 FEET
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND FURTHER INLAND AS THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM PST MON JAN 11 2010/

DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHILE A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COAST. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER. AREAS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEYS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE AS WILL THE
EAST SIDE...PARTICULARLY NEAR SUMMER LAKE.

TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND HEAVY RAINS WILL
FALL ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE HIGH...BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET.

TUESDAY A SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT WILL FORM KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY
STRONG AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT PLAGUED
BY VALLEY FOG UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

STORMY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ021-ORZ022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ORZ031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ026.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1
     AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
     PZZ370-PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-
     PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.

KS

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