Gale Warning 7, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
114 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

PRECIPITATION HAS ABATED OVER THE MEDFORD CWA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED STATIONS REPORTING OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

TWO MORE WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE SECOND WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THEM...AND THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE IN THE 3000-3500 FOOT RANGE.

AFTER THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FOR A SHORT INTERVAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY AND THE
STORM DOOR WILL OPEN ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM 42N 140W SUNDAY MORNING TO 48N 135W SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE AROUND
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DIRECTED INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER OREGON AS WELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE OTHER SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SHASTA VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY ABOVE 3500 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY...BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BECOME ACTIVE AND MORE WET SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MEDFORD CWA. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL STRIKE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE AREA WITH MODOC COUNTY GETTING
THE MOST ACTION. AMOUNTS THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CREATE SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IT WILL MOVE OUT THURSDAY. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL GET THE WORST OF IT. THAT SYSTEM WILL EXIT FRIDAY
AND ANOTHER LONGER LASTING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL IFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY BUT
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE
CASCADES LATER ON THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
        SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
        PZZ356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
        PZZ376.

15/15/99