Gale Warning 35, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 AM PDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY. THE MAIN ITEMS OF
INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTHERN KLAMATH AND FAR NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTIES...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND A STRONG COOLING TREND INTO
SUNDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. THE MARINE STRATUS NEAR
CAPE MENDOCINO IS SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
BROOKINGS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR NORTH BEND THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT FRI SEP 3 2010/

DISCUSSION...PRESENTLY THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. THE MARINE STRATUS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM PDT.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN COOS AND
NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES COULD EASILY DROP INTO MID 30S WITH A FEW TYPICAL SPOTS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S DESPITE THE FACT THERE WILL BE
SOME CLOUD COVER.

THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE 500 MB COOL POOL WILL ALSO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
12 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO NORMAL.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CLEARING COULD RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES GETTING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
BE OF INTEREST NOT ONLY FOR GROWERS..BUT ALSO FOR ANYONE WHO WILL BE
CAMPING DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING NORTH
ALONG THE OREGON COAST... THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER LOW SOUTH FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO
OREGON. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW AND TRACKS IT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER. BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

DW