Wind Chill Advisory 8, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010

...CRAZY, COLD MISERABLE SOUTH FL DAY...
...FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

.UPDATE...SEVERAL UPDATES THIS MORNING:

TEMPS PLUMMETED ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING AND WITH THE
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SEE NO REASON
TEMPS WILL BUDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WRF
SHOWS. SO UPDATED THE TEMP FCST TO GO WITH THE EXPECTED STEADY
TEMPS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS/SKY TO
WHAT WE HAVE WHICH WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE THINGS CLEAR THIS EVENING.

FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF COLLIER, HENDRY,
GLADES, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEN THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN FOR FREEZING TEMPS TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA...AND SO THIS WARNING WAS
ISSUED. TEMPS OF 25-30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THIS REGION...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NAPLES/WEST PALM BEACH
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

A FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN FREEZING TEMPS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION...SO WILL WAIT FOR
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CYCLE AND MAKE AN ASSESSMENT ON POSSIBLE
UPGRADES THIS AFTERNOON.

NEED TO MENTION THE FACT THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF TAMPA TO
ORLANDO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CRASHING
TO BELOW 1 K FT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IT IS
GOING TO END UP BEING A RACE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR AND ENDING
PRECIP. THE PRECIP LIKELY WILL END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN RAIN ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...THERE IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
BY THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...MAINLY
NORTH OF AN EVERGLADES CITY TO WEST PALM BEACH LINE. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE
THIS MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD HAVE NO ADVERSE IMPACTS. IT'S CRAZY TO EVEN HAVE TO DISCUSS
THIS IN SOUTH FLORIDA!!

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010/

AVIATION...LOW STRATUS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY IFR CIGS THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED IN THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING DUE TO GUIDANCE
WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW CIGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING BUT LOOKING AT
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SO
TAFS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. LIGHT
RAIN WILL ALSO AT TIMES REDUCE VSBY TO AROUND 4SM BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10-12KT AND GUSTING TO AROUND
16-18KT AND THEN DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING MIAMI DADE COUNTY ATTM.
THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER THOUGHT. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGHING IS STILL WAY BACK OVER LA. ATTM. HOWEVER, THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND BY SUNRISE. THE START OF
THE REAL COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL OVER THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD.
THE RADAR DEPICTION OF INCREASING RAIN SHOWS WELL WHAT IS SEEN ON
THE FCSTD SOUNDINGS. THEY SHOW PWAT'S ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 1.25
TO 1.50 INCHES BY 12Z WITH DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA VALUES AND
OVERRUNNING. HIGHS POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR TODAY. TEMPS WILL NOT
GET OUT OF THE 50S TODAY AND WILL ACTUALLY SLOWLY FALL AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BUT STILL LOW THICKNESS VALUES, HAVE STILL ACCEPTED
THE GFS MOS TEMP NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY FOR AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ONLY FOR GLADES COUNTY AND ONLY FROM 6 AM
TO 9 AM. HAVE EXTENDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO THE METRO AREAS
FOR SUNDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TODAY. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES LOOKS GOOD
FOR MOST AREAS. THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS WATCH DUE TO THE
WINDS DECREASING AND CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A FREEZE WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF FOR THE
PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING. SCEC WILL BE UP FOR
THE LAKE AND BAY TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS RECOVER SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY BUT NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. NO PROBLEMS FOR TUESDAY ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  33  54  35 / + 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  46  36  57  38 / + 30 10 -
MIAMI            48  37  57  38 / + 40 10 -
NAPLES           45  33  52  32 / + 20 10 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-
     FLZ073-FLZ075.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-
     FLZ074-FLZ075.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-
     FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-
     FLZ174.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1024 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010

CORRECTED HEADLINE SECTION FOR WIND CHILL WATCH

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-100600-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1024 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT PALM BEACH...GLADES...HENDRY AND
COLLIER COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT BROWARD...MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA TODAY, TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH, THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

WIND: A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE GULF STREAM WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN
POSSIBLY TO NEAR 9 FEET LATER ON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG BOTH
COASTS EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY RETURNING
TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.