Wind Chill Advisory 6, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1237 AM EST WED JAN 6 2010

.AVIATION...NW FLOW PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS AT AROUND 8-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 16 KTS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SPEED BY 06/15Z, SLOWING DOWN AGAIN BY 06/23Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THE SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. LATEST VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THAT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA -- WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST...WHERE A BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK OF COLD AIR
MARINE-LAYER STRATOCU REMAINS. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...COURTESY OF
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY
DRY AIR UPSTREAM FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO CONTINUE SPREADING
SOUTHWARD... SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT...AS CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE AN ISSUE. THUS...BASED ON LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND REASONING MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL UPGRADE FREEZE WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH/METRO BROWARD/METRO MIAMI-
DADE...AND MAINTAIN INHERITED WARNING FOR AFFECTED ZONES. THE AREA
OF PATCHY FROST WILL ALSO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS METRO PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...
BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE. WITH NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN IN THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DRAINAGE FLOW OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL AND METRO ZONES ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TO LEVELS COMPARABLE TO THOSE FROM TODAY...WITH
FULL SUNSHINE AND VERY WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION ANTICIPATED. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED FREEZE WATCH...AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FREEZE...AND WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE FREEZE
WATCH REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY...AS WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW EJECTING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA.

WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE
1-1.3 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN SHOULD BEGIN LATE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...IN REGIME OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. ALTHOUGH MUCH CAN STILL CHANGE IN THIS EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COMBINATION OF BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS...CLOUDS...RAIN...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
MAKE FOR A VERY RAW PERIOD BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLOW WARMING TREND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW.

MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE/OFF SHORE GULF ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH SCEC HEADLINED
FOR THE NEAR SHORE GULF MARINE ZONES AND BISCAYNE BAY. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN THE GULF STREAM...AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 07/00Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT ANOTHER VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ROUGH/HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ADVERTISED BY MODELS HAS RESULTED IN NO RFW THUS FAR TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED WARNING...AS WINDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO MARGINAL RFW CRITERIA TOMORROW...BUT WILL LET
MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL BASED ON DEW POINT TRENDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  33  65  47  68 / -  -  -  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  36  66  51  69 / -  -  -  20
MIAMI            37  67  51  72 / -  -  -  20
NAPLES           36  64  51  61 / -  -  -  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-
     FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-
     FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-
     FLZ174.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ068-
     FLZ072-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA

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