Wind Chill Advisory 15, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION-COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...MUCH, MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. A RAIN COOLED
AIRMASS IS CREATING TEMPS IN THE 50S FROM TAMPA TO ORLANDO, AND
THIS IS COMBINED WITH WIND GUST OF 30 TO 45 MPH, HOWEVER PRESSURE
AND DEWPT ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ACTUAL FRONT IS OVER THE BIG
BEND TO LAKE CITY AREA. AT ANY RATE... THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO S FL TONIGHT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OVER THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST AROUND
9Z. STRONG CAA WILL TAKE HOLD LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT WITH
MONDAY MORNING TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S FROM NORTHERN
GLADES COUNTY TO THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S ALONG WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS (PENDING ON
LOCATION) WILL CREATE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADV FOR THOSE
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA MORNING TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT DUE TO ONGOING STRONG CAA TEMPS
MAY ONLY RISE 10 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. THE GULF MARINE LAYER MAY
ALSO ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER, AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE
GULF COAST, TO AID THE CHILLY FEEL.

TEMPS WILL TUMBLE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA AFTER SUNSET MON WITH
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA AND A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED OUT TO INCLUDE METRO SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NOT ALL AREAS IN THESE ZONES WILL
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. THE WESTERN SUBURBS ALONG THE TURNPIKE ARE
THE MOST AT RISK IN MIAMI-DADE, AND IN BROWARD THE I-75 AND
SAWGRASS EXPRESSWAY CORRIDORS ARE THE MOST AT RISK. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ADV AND
WARNINGS EXPECTED TO ISSUED TONIGHT FOR TUESDAY MORN.

FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WED MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS BEFORE A WARNING TREND BEGINS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...WL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE A LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT WL EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AOA 4-5 KFT. SFC
WINDS FROM W-SW AT AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
ARND 20 KTS WILL SHIFT TO NW AT 15-18 WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WL TIME THIS TO BE AROUND 02Z
OVER KAPF AND KPBI AND OVER KMIA ARND 05Z. GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY MORNING BUT WL INCREASE
AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. /RGH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INC ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, LAKE, AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS, AND OCCASIONAL ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO S FL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST
MONDAY KEEPING THE GULF MARINE LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER MIN RHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE 15 TO
20 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS VERY NEAR
RFW CRITERIA, BUT AT THIS TIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TRANSPORTING VERY LOW MOISTURE LVLS DOWN THE
PENINSULA AND INTO S FL... THEREFORE A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BE ISSUED
FOR ALL S FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TOO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND MIN HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 13-14.

                    MONDAY  12/13         MONDAY 12/13
CITIES               RECORD LOWS            MIN HIGHS
MIAMI                 33 - 1934             55 - 1962
FORT LAUDERDALE       29 - 1934             63 - 1960
WEST PALM BEACH       30 - 1962             55 - 1962
NAPLES                27 - 1962             54 - 1962
MIAMI BEACH           36 - 1962             64 - 1969
DEVILS GARDEN         21 - 1962             52 - 1962
MOORE HAVEN           24 - 1962             47 - 1957
LA BELLE              22 - 1962             52 - 1962
BELLE GLADES          25 - 1948             54 - 1957
CLEWISTON             29 - 1962             58 - 1958

                   TUESDAY 12/14          TUESDAY 12/14
CITIES              RECORD LOWS             MIN HIGHS
MIAMI                35 - 1962              59 - 1962
FORT LAUDERDALE      34 - 1962              63 - 1969
WEST PALM BEACH      33 - 1962              58 - 1962
NAPLES               29 - 1962              59 - 1982
MIAMI BEACH          39 - 1962              62 - 1962
DEVILS GARDEN        23 - 1962              60 - 1962
MOORE HAVEN          25 - 1962              51 - 1962
LA BELLE             23 - 1962              59 - 1962
BELLE GLADES         30 - 1962              52 - 1962
CLEWISTON            30 - 1962              51 - 1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  42  57  29  57 / 20 -  0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE  47  60  34  58 / 20 -  0 0
MIAMI            51  61  36  58 / 20 -  0 0
NAPLES           50  58  34  55 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-INLAND BROWARD-
     INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO PALM
     BEACH.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
     COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-
     INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM
     BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO
     PALM BEACH.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL
     PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND
     BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-
     MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM
     BEACH.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND PALM
     BEACH.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     PALM BEACH-GLADES-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO
     THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER
     INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BISCAYNE BAY-
     LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GULF WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GULF
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GULF
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...04/AT
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...47/RGH

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