Tornado Warning 15, NWS Miami, FL

286 
WWUS52 KMFL 122235
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
635 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010

FLC099-122245-
/O.CAN.KMFL.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-100412T2245Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
635 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT 
PRODUCED THE TORNADO HAS WEAKENED. THUS THE TORNADO WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2678 8052 2653 8063 2667 8085 2671 8079
      2671 8078 2669 8074 2672 8073 2675 8074
      2676 8072 2675 8071 2678 8070 2683 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 058DEG 10KT 2672 8074

$$

GR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PRESSING SE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A
WELL-DEFINED DECREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THIS
TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A DRYING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH
ANY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT IT APPEARS WITH SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION THAT THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BEING FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD. JUST AS IMPORTANT...THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
CURRENTLY OVER N FL AND THE SERN CONUS WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE
ERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM IN THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS IS ALWAYS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLD LOW-TOPPED/FAST-MVG SHOWERS BUT CHANCES
ARE SO SMALL WITH SUCH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE FCST BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT. LIGHT BUT WEAKER
ERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
SETTLES SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE ATLC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP CYCLE FOR A STRONG ERLY
FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. WARMEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST DUE TO THE FLOW BEING
OFFSHORE THERE. CONVERSELY...THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE
ATLC COAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG E/NE WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH VERY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RESULTING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25KTS
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LIGHTEN SOME DUE TO THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS...BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS MAY BE JUST EVER SO
SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. THESE
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8FT IN THE GULF STREAM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DRIER AIR MVG INTO THE REGION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO
OR NEAR 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
REGIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BECAUSE 20FT WINDS MAY BE NEAR 15MPH WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING REGARDLESS OF THE RH DURATION BELOW
35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  79  71  80 / 40 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  73  82 / 40 20 10 10
MIAMI            70  81  72  82 / 40 20 10 10
NAPLES           63  85  65  86 / 20 20 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WX...STRASSBERG
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-131000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
757 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RIP CURRENTS. THEREFORE THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH WATERSPOUTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

WIND: WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WIND GUSTS IN
THE RANGE FROM 40 TO 57 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAIL: HAIL OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS TODAY.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOME MINOR URBAN OR ROADWAY FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES AND AN INCREASE IN THE
LOCAL SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG