Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Miami, FL

169 
WWUS52 KMFL 161528
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1128 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FLC011-099-161535-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100716T1545Z/
PALM BEACH FL-BROWARD FL-
1128 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... 
GUSTY WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2631 8088 2661 8088 2628 8050 2614 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 128DEG 25KT 2642 8085

$$

70/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.UPDATE...
WEATHER WISE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AS THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES...HOWEVER...TO THE SHORT TERM WIND AND
MARINE FORECASTS. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOCALIZED WIND
SURGE HAS ENTERED THE REGION. SOME OF IT IS ACCOUNTED FOR BY THE
GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT ENTERED THE SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS FURTHER NORTH IN
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND IN SETTLEMENT POINT IN THE BAHAMAS ALSO
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS...WHICH IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN
THE RECENT GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE UPDATED TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...ALSO FOR THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS...WITH A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS WERE INCREASED ABOVE RECENT GUIDANCE TO
REFLECT THE INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

AVIATION...
UPR LVL LOW PRES SYS TO PASS S OF S FLA BUT COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT/INCRG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LEAD TO INCRS IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY TDA. OTRW...VCSH E COAST TERMINALS THRU 16Z THEN SOME
MVFR CIG/VSBY IN +SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS. SFC WNDS ESE-SE ARND
10 KTS INCRG AFT 14Z 11-13G20 KTS WITH HIR GUSTS PSBL IN TSRA. AT
KAPF VFR THRU 18Z THEN SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY IN +SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z.
SFC WND ENE-ESE < 10 KTS THRU 16Z THEN BCMG SE 10-12G20+ WITH HIR
GUSTS PSBL IN TSRA.

JR/DD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MID LVL INVERTED TROF IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S FL FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE A DEEP RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. PWAT ACROSS THE AREA IS RUNNING
AROUND 1.75 TO 2" VIA GPS MET AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 2" THROUGH TODAY AS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALSO, AS THE LOW/TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA, MID LVL TEMPS WILL DECREASE AROUND 1 OR 2 DEGREES
THROUGH THE DAY SLIGHTLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES... THEREFORE
NUMEROUS TO HIGH END SCT STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HVY RN AND SOMETIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HAVE ALREADY
WITNESSED THIS SHIFT. TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND
MID LVL TROF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE PAST THE AREA. THE DEEP RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE A VERY DRY MID LVL LAYER/SAL INTO S FL.
PWATS WILL DECREASE BY AN INCH AND MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR
-5C...THIS WILL CAUSE POPS TO DECREASE INTO THE ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT CATEGORY AT BEST WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE EAST FLOW WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HOLD THE GULF SEA BREEZE AT BAY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY HOLDING OFF ANY RELIEF TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SAT AND SUN.

MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EXTENDED FROM THE ATLANTIC
INTO N FL AND GA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN INVERTED TROF, AND
THEN THE SAL MAY RETURN MID WEEK WITH A DECREASE IN POPS AGAIN.

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS OF 13 TO 18 KTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AGAIN. MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK THIS PATTERN WILL
REPEAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND RELAXES AS TROPICAL
WAVES PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2
TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE GULF STREAM AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  80 / 50 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  82  91  82 / 60 30 10 10
MIAMI            90  80  91  81 / 60 30 10 10
NAPLES           90  77  95  76 / 60 30 30 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-162300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH OFF OF THE PALM BEACHES BUT 15 TO 20 MPH OFF OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING BROWARD, MIAMI
DADE, MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

WIND: GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 MPH OR HIGHER WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FLZ073-074-173-161445-
METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH...

AT 1010 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CUTLER BAY...MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 30 TO 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

WEST PERRINE...
METRO ZOO...
COUNTRY WALK...
INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2563 8027 2560 8031 2556 8030 2554 8030
      2553 8032 2550 8033 2549 8032 2548 8033
      2544 8033 2555 8058 2576 8046 2565 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 118DEG 29KT 2558 8034

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FLZ067-071-161530-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH...

AT 1047 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTH OF MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY. ALL STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

WEST BROWARD REC. AREA ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
MICCOSUKEE SERVICE PLAZA...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2616 8087 2655 8087 2626 8045 2605 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 123DEG 22KT 2624 8060

70/DD