Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Miami, FL

827 
WWUS82 KMFL 202258
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
558 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH, 
INLAND BROWARD, INLAND MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...

FLZ063-066-067-069>071-073-075-210000-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-100220T2300Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
558 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER, INLAND PALM BEACH, 
INLAND BROWARD, INLAND MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES,
PREVENTING THE RH'S TO FALL AT OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

...CORRECTION TO MARINE SECTION...

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ONE SUCH WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE
AND RADAR SHOWING THIS FEATURE WITH LIGHT RAIN ON BOTH KEY WEST
AND MIAMI RADARS. SURFACE AIR IS STILL VERY DRY AND ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SINCE THIS WAS NOT YET IN
THE FORECAST, HAVE ALREADY TRANSMITTED THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
REGION TODAY CLEARING SOMEWHAT BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC PULLS IN SOME OF THE MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE BY SUNDAY TO INDUCE A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING AS SUCH. MAV GUIDANCE ACTUALLY
GIVES ME LOW END CHANCE ALONG WITH MET SHOWING THIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE. THE
BIGGEST FACTOR FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH WARMER WEATHER WITH
THE RETURN EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 70S TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY NIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THINGS GET A LITTLE
TRICKY AND THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS PARTICULAR WAVE IS THAT ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING
FROM A LITTLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. IN ANY CASE, THEY ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RETURN MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING DOES SHOW DESTABILIZATION ALONG
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH EARLIER RUNS.
STILL, SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. IN ADDITION,
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY BUT VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND IT.
IN FACT, LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACTUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
THE GFS SHOWS WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THING TO PONDER IS RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
00Z MEX GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS LIKELY POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS
SEEMS HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS AS FORECAST SOUNDING BY 12Z TUESDAY SHOWS
PWAT DOWN TO JUST OVER ONE INCH. SO HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE AND
SHOW THE BEST CHANCE EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT THEN INCREASES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK. SO AGAIN HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS AT
2 FEET OR LESS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS WIND VEERED TO THE EAST LATE YESTERDAY. EVEN
THOUGH CURRENTLY A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPED, LOW LEVEL WIND WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 70S AND SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE.
THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE AN
UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SUNDAY AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  57  75  63 / 10 -  20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  76  66 / 10 -  20 20
MIAMI            74  60  77  65 / 10 -  20 20
NAPLES           74  55  77  61 / 10 -  20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-
     INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-201000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
605 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE
40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA