Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES HAVING CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE COAST. THE
CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO PERHAPS MID 60S AS GOOD COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY.
DEWPOINTS DROPPED QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
LEVELED OFF ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS WHERE THEY DROPPED THE
MOST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG WARNING IS NEEDED.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...OBS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WINDS
STEADY AROUND 20KTS ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND 20-25KTS AT FOWEY
ROCKS AND SETTLEMENT POINT. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE LAKE AND ALL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

/STRASSBERG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010/

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST
THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR AREA WIDE BY 13 TO 14Z. WINDS WILL
BE NW TODAY AND GUSTY AT TIMES. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AT 07Z IS ROUGHLY ALONG A VRB-APF LINE
AND PROGRESSING SOUTH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE AREAS OF RAIN IS
MOVING THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND HENDRY COUNTY ATTM. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE PENINSULA BY 12Z AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MAINLY THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK AND
UNNOTICEABLE FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE
COOL AIR ALREADY OVER US. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
WON'T REACH THE STATE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL STAY FAIRLY
COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH BY MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT.

MARINE...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF AND WON'T REACH 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS IN THE
GULF. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ALL WATERS.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS.

FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH'S WILL BE IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
TODAY BUT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE MAVMOS AND METMOS FOR THE DEW POINTS. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, MIN RH'S WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  40  65  44 / -  -  -  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  45  66  47 / -  -  -  10
MIAMI            68  46  67  48 / -  -  -  10
NAPLES           65  45  63  46 / -  -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO
     OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL
     WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-171030-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
313 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOW TO MID
40S ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS MAY MAKE THE
TEMPERATURE FEEL AROUND 5 DEGREES COLDER AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.