Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Miami, FL

339 
WWUS82 KMFL 132302
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
602 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

FLZ072>074-172-173-140015-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100113T2300Z/
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
602 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

LOCAL OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
INDEED RISEN ABOVE 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA.
THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE
AT 6 PM EST.

$$

70/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010

...WARMING TREND FINALLY HERE...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND IS FINALLY ON
ITS WAY WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S OVER SE
AREAS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE 60S ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN U.S. MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE LOW LVL WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO NE AND THEN EAST. A WEAK UPPER LVL
RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ALSO AID IN RAISING TEMPERATURES DUE, IN PART, TO
INCREASED M/U LVL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA, LITTLE OR NO PRECIP SHOULD
BE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY THAT WE
COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND THE LOW LVL FLOW TURN MORE SE
ADVECTING PATCHES OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS BACK OVER S. FLORIDA. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CAT AND WL INDICATE
A CHANCE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS
PERIOD IS, NO ONLY THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT, BUT ALSO THE KIND
OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BOTH, 13/12Z GFS RUN AND
ECMWF (13/00Z RUN), HAVE A FAIRLY CLOSE INITIALIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEX JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. HOWEVER, THEY SOON BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SPEED AND POSITION
OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. GFS HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
THE FASTEST AND THE ONE WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST POSITION, BUT THE LAST RUN
SHOWS A TREND TO GO CLOSER TO ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND...BELIEVE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AND ACTUAL FROPA ABOUT 24 HRS LATER THAN
GFS. AT THIS TIME WL COMPROMISE AND BRING BOTH, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER, SOMETIME IN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS, I.E. VERY LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND, MOST WX CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD
BE EXPERIENCED SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

LIKEWISE...LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING MOST ENERGY/BETTER
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD..CLOSER TO ECMWF
SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT NOW SEEMS A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY,
HOWEVER, IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGH AND THAT IS THE REASON TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRYING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY.

.MARINE...PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER ALL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH MARINE CONDITIONS TURNING HAZARDOUS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS. MONDAY THE WINDS SHOULD
TURN NORTHWEST AND DECREASE IN SPEED...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY
STILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF STREAM UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PROLONGED NW FLOW AND LOWER DEW POINT VALUES CAUSED RH
VALUES TO PLUNGE OVER THE ERN METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATION WAS EXPECTED NOT TO EXCEED THREE HOURS
AS THE SFC FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE NE AND BRING MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO EAST AND THEN SE BY
FRIDAY...MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND THUS HIGHER RH VALUES. THEREFORE...NO PROBLEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  47  72  58  76 / 0 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  73  63  76 / 0 10 10 20
MIAMI            50  74  63  77 / 0 20 10 20
NAPLES           43  73  54  79 / 0 10 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 AM EST WED JAN 13 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140945-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
830 AM EST WED JAN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AROUND THE LAKE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND, AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.