Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT... AND TO BRING UP SEVERE WORDING INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS. 18Z
NAM HAS HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS POORLY. IT APPEARS THAT AT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE
IT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY MIDEVENING...BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.

BESIDES THE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AR... ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM IS SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG A WARM
FRONT OVER NORTH MS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 170.

MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE HEALTHY AND SURFACE CONVERGE STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED...
MUCAPES SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY LESSEN HAIL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
60S WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
70S WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FEW SHOWERS
OVER MONROE COUNTY BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW OF STORMS IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY HOVER OVER
PARTS OF MISSOURI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AROUND. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY SO A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL KEEPING DRY WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TUP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA MAY ARRIVE EARLIER AT MEM/JBR THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOVED UP TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS
THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER PASSAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  60  73  49  60 /  90  10  40  40
MKL  59  74  46  62 /  90  50  40  40
JBR  54  69  43  59 /  90  10  40  40
TUP  60  74  49  66 /  90  20  40  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-112330-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
318 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR WEST OF A LINE FROM CARUTHERSVILLE MISSOURI TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE EAST OF THIS LINE AFTER 3 AM
CST AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
736 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             POWHATAN                36.08N 91.12W
03/10/2010  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER HAIL IN POWHATAN. HAIL ALSO COVERING THE GROUND
            IN BLACK ROCK.

&&

CCD