Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHILE A LARGER AREA OF RAIN
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BUT THIS ACTIVITY TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH TORNADOES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
HAVE A EVEN GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLASH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7
AM TO 7 PM ON SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
UNTIL 10 PM ON SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL END
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO
WARM UP SOME BY THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH. A NEW
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEXT FRIDAY.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BE JUST AS POTENT AS
THE SYSTEM WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL IF WE SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL IMPACT THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
24/03Z-24/04Z. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS INVOF
SHRAS AND TSRAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-20 KTS.
AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-12KTS. AFTER 24/09-24/12Z THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 24/18-24/20Z WITH IFR CONDS
BECOMING LIKELY. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 24/18Z-24/20Z AND BECOME
VFR AT ALL SITES AFT 24/21-24/23Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS FROM THE SSW.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  77  58  74 /  70 100  20  20
MKL  66  75  56  73 /  70 100  40  20
JBR  65  74  55  72 /  70 100  20  20
TUP  67  78  58  76 /  70 100  40  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241515-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
807 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF
EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS...TO BROWNSVILLE TENNESSEE...TO HOUSTON
MISSISSIPPI.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THESE LOCATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH 10 PM
CDT SATURDAY...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...AND
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SEVERE
WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL
BE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH. SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

JLH

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