Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST TODAY. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM QUINCY ILLINOIS TO
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LINE ARE
CURRENTLY SEVERE. MODEST CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH HIGH
HELICITY VALUES OF 450 M2/S2 ARE OVER THE AREA...THUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS THE LINE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH. 925 MB LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60
KTS BY 12Z. QUESTION WILL BE IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TOO STRONG TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AS UPDRAFTS MAY BE SHEARED OFF. IF UPDRAFTS ARE
ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NE ARKANSAS SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE APPROACHING MEMPHIS AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING MAY LEAD TO BETTER INSTABILITY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
EXIT THE CWA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S. BY THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON EXACT
LOCATION WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A 20 POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND HAS MOVED THROUGH KJBR. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS IN SHRAS AND TSRAS INVOF FRONT. TSRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF THE MS RIVER AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER THIS MORNING. OPTED TO MENTION JUST SHRAS WITH
CBS AT KJBR AND KMEM WITH TSRAS AT KMKL AND KTUP. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 20-35KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER SHRAS AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. KTUP MAY
HANG ON TO CLOUDS AND SHRAS A LITTLE LONGER AS FRONT SLOWS DOWN A
BIT. THIS WILL DELAY DRIER AIR FROM MOVING INTO NE MS AND IF
SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  55  78  49 /  60  10   0  10
MKL  75  47  79  44 /  70  10   0  10
JBR  73  46  76  44 /  50  10   0  10
TUP  82  56  81  48 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DESOTO-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-MCNAIRY.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-261245-
PEMISCOT MO-LAKE TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
703 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 45 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF TIPTONVILLE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COOTER AT 703 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DYER...LAKE...OBION AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR CARUTHERSVILLE...REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK AND UNION
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES REELFOOT LAKE.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
713 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

TNZ049-088-261245-
SHELBY TN-TIPTON TN-
713 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

STRONG WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIDTOWN MEMPHIS AT 713 AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BARTLETT...CORDOVA...GERMANTOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS AND
MILLINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

BORGHOFF