Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM ALMOST A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER AND A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE THREE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS...WITH
ONE BEING AN OUTFLOW ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...A SECOND ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH IS ENTERING NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. A RECENT MCD
JUST ARRIVED FROM SPC OUTLYING THE POTENTIAL AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TENNESSEE TO TUNICA
MISSISSIPPI LINE. MESOSCALE PRODUCTS SHOW A 5000J/KG CAPE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL LEAVE THE 30 TO 40 POPS IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND THEM
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MISSISSIPPI. BUT BELIEVE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WON'T GET INTO THE ACTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
APPROACHES.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING STALLED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE RIVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO BEEN WATCHING LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
HIGH...WITH READINGS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO WITH THE
ANTICIPATED EXPIRATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 8PM...IT
SEEMS FEASIBLE TO HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...OUTLYING
THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...CONFINED TO THE SAME AREA...FROM LEFT OVER
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. BUT MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH...AND THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT THE MIDSOUTH
WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION DIVIDING
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAKNESS MAY BE
ALSO DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING A REBIRTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5
REMNANTS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
NEW TROPICAL FEATURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN CURVE NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA BORDERS. THUS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PM CONVECTION.

THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK
NORTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH 595+ HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH FROM THE
ALASKAN GULF TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...BUT THE AREA COULD
SEE MORE READINGS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT WARNINGS BEING
REISSUED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THEN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS COULD BE REDUCED TEMPORARILY BELOW VFR. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
ALONG GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOTED IN LATEST 500MB RAOBS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI PROPAGATES EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST AREAS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED CB WORDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES AND REMOVED THEM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH. OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR
LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS OR TEMPOS AT
THIS TIME (<30%). WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS POST
FRONTAL.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  77  95  75  95 /  30  20  10  20
MKL  72  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
JBR  74  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
TUP  77  95  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-162200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 108 TO 117 DEGREES.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HEAT INDICES FORECAST OF 103
TO 108 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 DEGREES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY EVENING.

A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
402 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

MSZ012-013-021-152145-
LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-YALOBUSHA MS-
402 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7
MILES EAST OF BATESVILLE AT 402 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE...PANOLA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BATESVILLE...GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK AND WATER
VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES ENID LAKE.

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