Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES BEYOND THIS EVENING ON A DAILY
BASIS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE WITH THE HIGH ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD.

SHOWER AND THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE WEEK AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE AND PROVIDE A MID LEVEL CAP.
DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PULSE STORMS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A NORTHEAST
U.S. UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS AND WOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
MCS ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED ON THE PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

OKULSKI

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA 18-01Z. KEPT
VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH A TEMPO 20-22Z AT KTUP WHERE CONFIDENCE
OF TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTING SITE IS HIGHEST. BRIEF LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...LESS THAN 1 HOUR...
IF TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS SITE. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...SHRA/TSRA WILL END BY 01Z...SO DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING ANY SITE BEYOND 01Z.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT
VFR CONDITIONS MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  93  78  93 /  40  40  20  30
MKL  75  92  75  93 /  40  40  20  30
JBR  76  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  30
TUP  75  93  75  93 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-
     DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
213 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-272115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
213 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE MID
SOUTH. HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OKULSKI

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