Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
125 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

UPDATE...

BUSY WEATHER MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MCS
THAT PRODUCED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN ITS PATH AND
RESULTANT FLOODING. THIS MCS HAS DECAYED BUT HAS LEFT IN ITS WAKE
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES...ONE EXTENDING FROM
WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION
WAS REDEVELOPING...AND THE SECOND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
EASTERN ARKANSAS.

THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE CONVECTION NOW OVER WEST TENNESSEE IS LIKELY
BEING FORCED BY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

AS THE AIRMASS HEATS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
SBCAPES RISE BACK ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
THE BEST HEATING IS EXPECTED.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION.

UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

FOLLOWING AND EXTENDED DRY PERIOD... MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH STANDS
A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES COME AS A RESULT OF A
TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE FROM STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. WE MAY
SEE A PARTIAL BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIODS...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP TO THE
WEST OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS
SUGGEST STORMS WILL TRAIN OVER NORTHERN AR INTO NORTHWEST TN
TONIGHT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCS. GIVEN THE 2 TO 3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST AR SUNDAY
EVENING... HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AR...
MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN BEGINNING 7 PM TONIGHT.

FORECAST CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY ARE MINOR. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... EXTENDED EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...REMNANTS OF THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROF. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RIVER IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK...
BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MID AND LATE PART OF
THIS WEEK. BY 240 HOURS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A
596 TO 598DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...POINTING TOWARD CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN.

PWB
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE
TEMPORARILY AT TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MKL AS OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES ONCE AGAIN BUT THINK A MAJORITY OF ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12/20-21Z AND
INCLUDED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES. POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND AFFECT TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
INITIATION/TIMING OF TONIGHT/S SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
LEFT EXISTING TIMING/TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR NOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 13/00Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  76  91  77 /  50  70  70  20
MKL  86  73  89  72 /  50  70  70  30
JBR  88  73  90  74 /  50  70  70  10
TUP  91  76  91  74 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
436 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. FLASH FLOODING WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT FLASH FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MORE LOCALIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
208 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W UNION CITY          36.42N 89.14W
07/11/2010                   OBION              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE FELL ACROSS NORTH COUNTY HOME ROAD AND ONTO SOME
            POWERLINES. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW MARTIN             36.29N 88.92W
07/11/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE FELL ONTO SIDONIA KENTON ROAD, COMPLETELY BLOCKED
            THE ROAD.

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HORNBEAK                36.33N 89.30W
07/11/2010                   OBION              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FIRE DEPARTMENT DIVERTED TRAFFIC AROUND WATER-COVERED
            ROADS IN THE TOWN OF HORNBEAK.

0950 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N PARAGOULD           36.08N 90.51W
07/11/2010                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            U.S. HIGHWAY 49 COVERED WITH AT LEAST A FOOT OF WATER

1008 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/11/2010                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            SOUTH 4TH STREET IN PARAGOULD HAS NEARLY 2 FEET OF WATER
            ON STREET.

1021 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/11/2010                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS CITY OF PARAGOULD. WATER UP TO
            WHEEL WELLS OF CARS AND SOME HOMES HAVE WATER ENTERING.

1045 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/11/2010                   GREENE             AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 412...IN SEVERAL PLACES...AND AT LEAST 10 OTHER
            ROADS COVERED IN THE TOWN OF PARAGOULD.

0148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WYNNE                   35.23N 90.79W
07/12/2010                   CROSS              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS RELAYED FROM POLICE SCANNER OF WIDESPREAD
            FLOODING ON FALLS BOULEVARD IN WYNNE. SEVERAL VEHICLES IN
            WATER AS HIGH AS VEHICLES HEADLIGHTS.

0217 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WYNNE                   35.23N 90.79W
07/12/2010  M3.07 INCH       CROSS              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.07 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN WYNNE IN A SPAN OF 1 HOUR AND
            15 MINUTES

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 90.00W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            I-240 BETWEEN UNION AVENUE AND I-40 IS FLOODED.

0657 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 89.98W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            INTERSECTION OF NORTH PARKWAY AT NORTH DUNLAP IS FLOODED.

0702 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BARTLETT            35.19N 89.84W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            INTERSECTION OF SYCAMORE VIEW AND SUMMER AVE IS FLOODED.

0706 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 89.96W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            INTERSECTION OF MCLEAN BLVD AND EVELYN AVE IS FLOODED.

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N GERMANTOWN          35.13N 89.79W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WALNUT GROVE ROAD NEAR GERMANTOWN PARKWAY IS FLOODED

0733 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS   35.07N 89.97W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KNIGHT ARNOLD ROAD AT TCHULAHOMA ROAD. ONE CAR IS STUCK
            IN THE WATER.

0738 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 89.94W
07/12/2010                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING ON HARDIN AVENUE...AT LEAST TWO CARS
            FLOODED

&&

RRH

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