Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A BOWLING GREEN KY TO
WALNUT RIDGE LINE AT 19Z. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE...HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -5C TO -8C AND SBCAPES OF
2000-4000 J/KG.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH TO
ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL TAPER POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WIND SHEAR AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK SO EXPECT PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE 18Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS WBZ AROUND 12 KFT
AND THE FREEZING LINE AROUND 15 KFT SO HAIL IS LESS OF A THREAT.
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE VERY NORTHERN COUNTIES SO LOWS MAY
DROP BELOW 70 ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECT HUMID CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ON
TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
WHEN LIFTED INDEX VALUES REACH -6C AND SBCAPE CLIMB TO 3000 J/KG.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S RESULTING IN MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AROUND 90.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP BASICALLY SOUTH OF A TUPELO TO
CLARKSDALE LINE. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO NORTHERN AREA OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.

THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER SCENE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH RAIN FREE
CONDS...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS WORK INTO EVEN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST
ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX MOVING DEEP INTO MEXICO...AS DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID
SOUTH MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING A LITTLE ALLOWING
SOME GULF MOISTURE TO WORK UP INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH. THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAD HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID SOUTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A 20 POP TO WESTERN AREAS FOR
SUN AND MON WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

PUSHED BACK VCTS AT ALL SITES A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREVIOUS
TAFS. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT VFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES AND KEPT TEMPO TSRA OUT FOR NOW.

KEPT TEMPOS IN FOR PATCHY FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP. LAV GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...WHICH WOULD BE ENHANCED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION.

CCD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  91  71  89 /  40  20  10  10
MKL  71  90  67  87 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  71  89  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
TUP  75  91  71  90 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>