Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN.

SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...A
WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN TWO AIR MASSES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND MAY PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE AIR TO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN PROVIDING WARM AIR AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

HAVE INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA AT ALL BUT KTUP...WHERE
MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
TSRA OVER NORTHEAST MS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT BEST TSRA
CHANCES TO OCCUR WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

VERY LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG AT ALL SITES...WITH KMEM THE
LIKELY EXCEPTION.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  90  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
MKL  64  89  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
JBR  67  89  67  87 /  30  30  20  10
TUP  66  92  67  89 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
444 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
444 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN RE-FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BORGHOFF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
444 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

ARZ026-028-MOZ113-115-262230-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
444 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HORNERSVILLE AT 445 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...CARAWAY...GOSNELL...HAYTI...
KEISER...KENNETT...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...MANILA...MONETTE...SENATH
AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BIG LAKE.