Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
428 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...

LINGERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY..BUT AFTER
TODAY A DRIER AND VERY WARM PATTERN WILL SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER IA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH HELPED TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-
CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED WITH THESE STORMS WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 J/KG AND 2000
J/KG...MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 5.
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF ONE OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVING ONE
INCH HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH MS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO LED TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG THE MS RIVER AND EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST. THINK ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THINK BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHEAST MS...AND GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THINK
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM PARTS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

A 500 MB HIGH OF 589 DM WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND STRETCH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES WITH THE VERY
WET GROUND...BUT IT WILL BE HOT REGARDLESS AS WE GET OUR FIRST
REAL TOUCH OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWERING A LITTLE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF ISSUANCE

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 21/09-13Z AS LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY AT MKL/TUP/JBR. THINK ANY POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BETWEEN 21/15-18Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 KTS AND VEER WEST BY 22/00Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  84  67  90  72 /  20  10  10   0
MKL  81  60  87  65 /  30  10  10   0
JBR  83  61  88  68 /  10  10  10   0
TUP  83  65  90  68 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
429 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

MSZ011-012-020-021-211015-
PANOLA MS-QUITMAN MS-YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
429 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTH OF CROWDER AT 429 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA...QUITMAN...TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.