Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
814 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.UPDATE...
AT 8 AM... SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DYERSBURG TN...
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MARIANNA AR. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAD FORMED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA / SOUTHERN AR.THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD LITTLE SUCCESS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY
DRIFTED NORTH DEEPER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIR OVER CENTRAL AR.

MAIN SEVERE CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE ROBUST CONVECTIVE LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRENADA MS...NORTHEAST THROUGH SAVANNAH TN.
KGWX VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWED DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAD
WEAKENED SOME SINCE 10Z IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS. STILL ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LEWPS AND BOWS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THESE AREAS...GIVEN THE TRAINING POTENTIAL.

GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST MS
DELTA...BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE LINEAR MCS TO THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE DELTA AREA WILL BE MARGINAL... SUNSHINE MAY
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.
WILL KEEP THE TORNADO WATCH GOING FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH MS AND WEST TN
REMAINS UNSTABLE AT DISCUSSION TIME...WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG... ACCOMPANIED BY 3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400 TO
800 M2/S2. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN GOING INTO MIDDAY IS EAST OF A
CLARKSDALE MS TO BROWNSVILLE TN TO PARIS TN. PARTICULAR ATTENTION
IS WARRANTED FOR NORTHEAST MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE
TUPELO AREA. THIS AREA WILL SEE MAXIMIZED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TOWARD LATE MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE LINE OCCURRING NEAR THE MS RIVER...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH AR. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED
BY A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM TX... AND WILL PRESENT A
SLIGHT SEVERE RISK FOR WEST TN...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY.

GFS CLEARS STORMS FROM THE MIDSOUTH BY 1 OR 2 AM CDT TONIGHT...
WHILE THE NAM HANGS STORMS BACK A LITTLE LONGER. HAVE FOLLOWED A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS TIMING.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN OPEN WAVE TO THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON FRIDAY...ENCOUNTERING SLIGHT INSTABILITY. EXPECT A FEW STORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

THROUGH 18Z... EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT KMKL/KTUP. THE
NORTH MS / WEST TN AREAS REMAIN RICH WITH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE.
FURTHER WEST... KMEM WILL WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE MAIN AREA
OF CONVECTION...BUT STILL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AFTER 15Z.

EXPECT VFR TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AWAY FROM KMEM...GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  77  60  84  61 /  80  10  10  10
MKL  77  55  87  53 / 100  30  10  10
JBR  76  55  84  55 /  30  10  10  10
TUP  79  60  87  54 / 100  70  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
729 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION... FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

MSZ004-005-009-014>017-021415-
ALCORN MS-TIPPAH MS-PRENTISS MS-UNION MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
PONTOTOC MS-
845 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EASTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 5 MILES EAST OF KEOWNVILLE TO 4 MILES WEST OF TROY AT
845 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...ITAWAMBA...LEE...PONTOTOC...PRENTISS...TIPPAH AND
UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BALDWYN...BOONEVILLE...
PONTOTOC...TOMBIGBEE STATE PARK...TRACE STATE PARK...TUPELO AND
VERONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

MSZ005-006-009-016-017-021445-
ALCORN MS-TISHOMINGO MS-PRENTISS MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
921 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 4 MILES EAST OF HINKLE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRATTS
FRIENDSHIP AT 921 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...ITAWAMBA...LEE...PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BOONEVILLE...IUKA...JCOLEMAN
STATE PARK AND TISHOMINGO STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BAY SPRINGS
LAKE.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

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