Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2010

Flash Flood Warning 284, NWS Memphis, TN

December 31, 2010Tunica County, Mississippi; 4 counties in Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Dec 31, 2010, 5:42 PM CST for Tunica County, Mississippi; 4 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 31, 2010, 5:42 PM CST (23:42 UTC)
Expired: Dec 31, 2010, 7:45 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Tunica County, MS

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 874 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 322 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 360 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.8
Supercell composite: 8.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 31, 5:21 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 5:21 PM CST, 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND LIT AS
WELL AS MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICT SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500
J/KG RANGE WITH AN ERODING MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. MID LEVEL
FORCING IS THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS FAR SE TX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN LA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN MS THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
THE REST OF THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR A RESIDUAL CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND AL BORDER NEW YEARS DAY
MORNING...IT WILL BE DRY WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE H5 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME PERIOD. THE GFS PERSISTS WITH THE H5
ZONAL FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF ROTATES A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OKULSKI

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED BETWEEN KMEM AND JBR WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL AFFECT KMEM FIRST WITH TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. STORMS WILL MARCH INTO KMKL
AND KTUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 05Z WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...WHILE KMEM AND KMKL BECOME VFR AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
KJBR WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 01Z-04Z.
CONDITIONS WON'T IMPROVE TO VFR AT KTUP UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SWINGING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  45  51  28  45 /  60  10   0   0
MKL  44  51  24  44 /  80  10   0   0
JBR  38  46  24  41 /  30  10   0   0
TUP  47  54  29  50 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 2:53 PM CST, 2 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-012300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
253 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE THE HAZARDS. PLEASE REFER TO
CURRENT WATCH AND WARNING STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OKULSKI

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 2:52 PM CST, 2 hours 50 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ026-027-035-312130-
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
252 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR...

  WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT 252 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BONO...HARRISBURG AND JONESBORO...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9103 3588 9088 3598 9084 3597 9057
      3539 9069 3531 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 230DEG 38KT 3543 9104

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 3:28 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ009-018-026-MOZ113-312215-
CRAIGHEAD AR-CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
328 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF JONESBORO AT 328 PM CST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN AND GREENE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BAY...BROOKLAND...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...
JONESBORO...LAKE CITY...MARMADUKE...MONETTE...PARAGOULD AND SENATH...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 9007 3599 9019 3599 9029 3593 9029
      3571 9038 3571 9086 3626 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 223DEG 38KT 3593 9066

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 3:41 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ009-MOZ113-312230-
CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-
341 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR...

  EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER RECTOR AT 341 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND DUNKLIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
CAMPBELL...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...MALDEN...PIGGOTT AND RECTOR...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8996 3656 8994 3653 8996 3649 8995
      3640 8997 3626 8996 3626 9031 3626 9037
      3663 9014 3663 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 231DEG 40KT 3628 9027

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 4:17 PM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ009-018-026-028-MOZ113-312300-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
417 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF MONETTE AT 417 PM CST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...GREENE AND MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BROOKLAND...CARAWAY...KENNETT...
LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...MARMADUKE...MONETTE AND SENATH...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 9032 3581 9065 3626 9034 3627 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 219DEG 37KT 3600 9037

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 5:01 PM CST, 41 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Dec 31, 5:27 PM CST, 15 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 31, 5:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lake	44 min
Dec 31, 5:27 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	DeSoto, Tate, Tunica	33 min
Dec 31, 5:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Tate	43 min
Dec 31, 12:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	59 min
Dec 31, 12:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence	64 min
Dec 31, 1:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	51 min
Dec 31, 1:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	66 min
Dec 31, 2:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	41 min
Dec 31, 2:38 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	52 min
Dec 31, 2:52 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	38 min
Dec 31, 3:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	40 min
Dec 31, 3:28 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead, Greene	47 min
Dec 31, 3:41 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay	49 min
Dec 31, 4:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead	43 min
Dec 31, 4:26 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	49 min
Dec 31, 4:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee	37 min
Dec 31, 5:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett, St. Francis	48 min
Dec 31, 5:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis	39 min
Dec 31, 5:59 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	46 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2010 Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2010 Every flash flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.