Flash Flood Warning 241, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

UPDATE...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAKLY DEFINED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CDT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HEAT CONCERNS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS
UPDATED DISCUSSION.

LATEST SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
AS THE VERY WARM...MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY EVENING/S
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE INDICIES FOR THE AFTERNOON YIELD 3000-4000 J/KG SURFACE
BASED CAPE...LI/S -7 TO -8...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL OVER 2 INCHES...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT 20-30KTS.
THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED MUCH BUT WITH
SOME WEAK SHEAR PRESENT...SOME CLUSTERING MAY OCCUR WITH THE
ACTIVITY. THUS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. HAIL IS NOT MUCH
OF A CONCERN AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE WARM WITH VERY HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS.

AT THIS TIME NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES AS
TUPELO AND OLIVE BRANCH HAVE ALREADY REACHED HEAT INDICIES OF 105
DEGREES. NONETHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEAT TRENDS AS
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER EXPANSION
OR CANCELLATION IS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS
IN VERY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...

RAIN CHANCES...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND
DANGEROUS HEAT TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND
OF THEM WITH NO PREFERENCE FOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO
SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. ALSO...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AT 5 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 72 TO 82 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE NEAR ALAMO TENNESSEE. AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENING/S CONVECTION WAS NEAR A UNION
CITY TO SOMERVILLE TO CLARKSDALE LINE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THIS LINE. A WEAK
FRONT WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS.

ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THINKING AREAS SOUTH OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 TO 109 DEGREES
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 8 PM WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION MAY COOL THINGS OFF BEFORE 8 PM...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ADVISORY NEEDED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES NORTH OF
THE ADVISORY AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW...
KEPT  THESE AREAS OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AS PERHAPS SOME
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 71 TO 74 DEGREE RANGE AS OPPOSED
TO 73 TO 78 DEGREES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAY KEEP HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY...THINK AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST...INDICATING WEAKER CAPPING. BELIEVE
FIRST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE 10 AM TO 2 PM NEAR THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. TIERED RAIN CHANCES
FROM 20 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO
50 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
THINKING SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CAPPING COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST.

REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...WEAK
SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT UNORGANIZED PULSE STORMS. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S...AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY
WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA NEAR 60 MPH...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL
IN LESS THAN HOUR AND CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AREAS EAST
OF A UNION CITY TO MEMPHIS TO CLARKSDALE APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE AND FLOODING
APPEAR UNLIKELY.

HIGHS EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...VERY SIMILAR
TO THURSDAY...BUT PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION AROUND.

TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. KEPT 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST...BUT
MOST...IF NOT ALL...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10 PM WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES THINKING INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO +12C AND
BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD CAP AND INHIBIT
MOST CONVECTION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE
TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI LINE WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WEAKEST
CAPPING IS FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ACCEPTED
00Z MAVMOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

ON SATURDAY...WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY
WEST OF I-55 WHERE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. DID NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WHICH
MAY BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105
DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOT...HUMID...AND MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING. WILL BE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WILL BE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND
WEDNESDAY WHEN MODELS FORECAST HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 597
DM. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND PERHAPS APPROACH 100 BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE LOW LEVELS CAN DRY OUT. LATEST
MODELS SUGGESTED A WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF I-40 ON
MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT THINK MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...SO KEPT
RAIN CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN 00Z MEXMOS.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE COVERAGE LIMITED MAINLY TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THUS FAR. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THINK BEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TUP AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18-20Z. AT MEM/MKL/JBR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
MAY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 HOURS FROM SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT MEM/MKL/JBR WILL CARRY CB AT
THESE LOCATIONS AND VCTS AFTER 21Z AT MEM/MKL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT AT TAF SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AT MKL/JBR/TUP AFTER 17/09Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  95  77  93  78 /  40  20  20  10
MKL  94  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
JBR  94  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
TUP  94  74  91  75 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO BOONEVILLE
MISSISSIPPI LINE. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109
DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS TO MARIANNA
ARKANSAS LINE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 10 PM TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
156 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ003>005-TNZ090-091-161945-
ALCORN MS-TIPPAH MS-BENTON MS-HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
156 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTH CENTRAL TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 14 MILES WEST OF POCAHONTAS TO
3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CORINTH AT 156 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...BENTON...HARDEMAN...MCNAIRY AND TIPPAH COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BIG HILL POND STATE PARK AND CORINTH...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ012-013-021-022-161945-
LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-YALOBUSHA MS-CALHOUN MS-
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR...

  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 55 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF WATER VALLEY AT 219 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE...PANOLA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK AND WATER VALLEY...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
ALSO INCLUDES ENID LAKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

TNZ090-162015-
HARDEMAN TN-
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES EAST OF CLOVERPORT TO
26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLOVERPORT AT 232 PM CDT. THE LINE WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

TNZ052>054-091-162100-
HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-CHESTER TN-MCNAIRY TN-
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER JACKS CREEK AT 322 PM CDT...MOVING WEST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HENDERSON...MADISON AND MCNAIRY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND HENDERSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ013-162130-
LAFAYETTE MS-
338 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR...

  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLY SPRINGS NATIONAL
FOREST AT 337 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOLLY SPRINGS
NATIONAL FOREST AND OXFORD...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.