Flash Flood Warning 192, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDSOUTH IS HELPING TO SET OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20 POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CWA. DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
MID 90S. AS FAR AS HEAT ADVISORIES...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT YESTERDAY AND TODAY WHICH HELPED ALLOW HEAT
INDICES TO REACH 105. THIS WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL NO LONGER BE
AROUND THUS DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105. THUS ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED. HOWEVER HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND
104. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME CLOSER IN
TIMING WITH THE NEXT FRONT BUT ARE STILL DIFFERENT WITH EXACT TIMING.
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER MODEL. GFS SEEMS TOO FAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE CLOSE AS DEWPOINTS COULD COME UP AND POOL ALONG
THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...GFS CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RELUCTANT TO FOLLOW GFS AS IT
HAS ADVERTISED THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AND IT
HAS YET TO HAPPEN THUS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE MID 90S. HOWEVER AIR WILL BE DRIER
SO DON/T THINK HEAT INDICES WILL BE A PROBLEM.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG
A KARG TO KDYR LINE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRAS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS DURING THE PERIOD UNLESS A SITE IS IMPACTED BY A
TSRA. WILL KEEP VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND MENTION A TEMPO FOR
TSRAS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KTUP FROM 25/18Z TO 25/20Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY
26/03Z OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AFT THIS TIME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT KJBR...KTUP AND KMKL FROM 26/09Z TO 26/12Z.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  97  79  97 /  20  20  10  20
MKL  73  94  74  96 /  20  20  10  20
JBR  75  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
TUP  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SHELBY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 8
PM. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THE ADVISORY AREA
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG
ARKANSAS TO MILLINGTON TENNESSEE TO COFFEEVILLE MISSISSIPPI. HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES.

A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

TNZ050-052-089-090-252100-
FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-HARDEMAN TN-
323 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILLVILLE AT 324 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...HARDEMAN...HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

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