Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ST. LOUIS TO LITTLE ROCK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME . THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR
THE STORMS TO INITIATE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. EVENTUALLY WHATEVER STORMS ARE ONGOING
WILL MERGE INTO A LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD DIE DOWN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME CLEARING
COULD COME BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE CWA. ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURRED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS STRATO-CU DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATOCU COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND VEER NORTHWEST AROUND 10-12 KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR MAINLY AFTER 08/00Z AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO TAF SITES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE BACK UP TO VFR AFTER 08/14Z. AS OF 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ARKANSAS/EAST TEXAS...THINK BEST TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE BETWEEN 07/22Z-08/00Z AT
JBR...07/23Z-08/01Z AT MEM...08 /00Z- 08Z AT MKL...AND
08/02Z-08/04Z AT TUP.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  62  43  68 /  90  10   0   0
MKL  54  61  35  65 / 100  10   0   0
JBR  50  60  39  67 /  60  10   0   0
TUP  58  64  40  67 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
340 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
7 PM CDT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THESE LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. FROST ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KRM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
438 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

ARZ026-027-035-072215-
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
438 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEINER TO
18 MILES WEST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT 438 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.