Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UPCOMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...AND A SEMI PERMANENT
UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NEAR...OR OVER THE REGION.  AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDED TO
THE EAST OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
IF STORMS INITIATE.  THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS ON THE DRYLINE AS IT LURCHES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HOW MUCH MID LEVEL SUPPORT THERE WILL BE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY MODELS TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA...
WHICH IS MASKED IN THE DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SINCE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AROUND 8 C/KM...SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR WAS AROUND 30KT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS.  THEREFORE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WERE RELEGATED TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN
AREA...AND PORTIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY.
WINDS WERE NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
NOT BE GREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...SATURDAY A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
THEREFORE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE WEST OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  PERUSE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.  SINCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ON THE DRYLINE AGAIN SATURDAY...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO TODAY WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF SAME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AS SHEAR WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 TO 30KT...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.

A FAIRLY SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE ABOVE IS EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH
SUNDAY AND EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.  THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THESE DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE
TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR
ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL BE REALIZED...NOT TO MENTION WHERE AND
WHEN.  ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RECEDE BACK INTO THE 80S
SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG
OR SEVERE.  PERHAPS BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO
WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE IS HOLDING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
RH/S FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND VAN HORN CORRIDOR ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT...HOWEVER THE WIND HAS REMAIN AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS...AND GOOD
TO EXCELLENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE PECOS. TOMORROW THE DRYLINE WILL
RUN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AND DOWN THROUGH THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND DRY
LIGHTNING IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
WILL ADD TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AREAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS OF
20 MPH ARE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE
VAN HORN CORRIDOR. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS SINCE FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH OR VERY HIGH THERE.

SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RH/S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AREAS...SUCH AS GAPS AND PASSES MAY
SEE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...BUT WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  92  71  89  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                62  98  58  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  70  89  /  10  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  99  71  91  /  30  30  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  93  60  90  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   64  95  63  93  /  20  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   54  93  53  92  /  20  10  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  93  70  90  /  20  20  20  30
ODESSA TX                  72  94  71  91  /  20  20  20  30
WINK TX                    70  99  69  95  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

76/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
143 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010 /1243 PM MDT FRI MAY 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...TRANS PECOS AND BIG
BEND AREAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...TRANS PECOS AND BIG
BEND. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVER THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND AREAS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS
PECOS AND BIG BEND. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SEVER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND VAN HORN CORRIDOR FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE DIGIT RH/S AND WINDS
NEAR 20 MPH. THERE IS A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR FOR THESE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION BY 5 PM MDT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TXZ079>081-212200-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-BIG BEND AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 21 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PRESIDIO...OR ABOUT 23 MILES WEST OF LAJITAS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL CROSS FARM TO MARKET ROAD 170 ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF
REDFORD...OR 18 MILES WEST OF LAJITAS. PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS IF THIS STORM APPROACHES
YOUR LOCATION.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TXZ058-060-067-212215-
WINKLER-WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL REEVES...SOUTHWESTERN WINKLER AND WESTERN WARD COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM CDT... PERSONS TRAVELING ON I-20 MAY ENCOUNTER THESE
STORMS.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PYOTE AT 448
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TXZ060-061-067-212300-
WINKLER-ECTOR-WARD-
523 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL WARD...WEST CENTRAL ECTOR AND WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF WINK AT 522 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

TXZ081-212330-
BIG BEND AREA-
557 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR CASTOLON IN
SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO BOQUILLAS CANYON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

&&