Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
301 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT COOLER TEMPS AND CAPPED THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER
OUT WEST WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH HEATING AND AN
UPPER JET FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-60KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING DISCREET CELLS
FORMING IN THE FST AREA WITH ROTATION IMMEDIATELY EVIDENT. FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST THE SHEAR IS LESS AT 30-40KTS...WHICH IS STILL
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS BUT THE TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHES WITH HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
SEMINOLE ARE STRUGGLING WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE BUT STORMS WILL
ONLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH TIME. EXPECT DISCREET
CELLS INITIALLY WITH A TRANSITION WITH TIME TO A MORE LINEAR
FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EARLY WILL
DIMINISH IN TIME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS MORE
PREDOMINANT. THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED TO INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION SO
PREFERRED THE GFS SOLUTION WITH RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
ENDING TOMORROW MORNING.

KEPT MIN TEMPS IN THE EAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUDS TONIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MOVES EAST AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.
ADDED SOME POPS IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING SHOWERS WHERE A LOW
LEVEL JET INTERSECTS A WEAK DRYLINE. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
STRONGER WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY DUE TO
INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL
PROGRESS BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE COOLING TEMPS TUE BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY SENDING A STRONG FRONT ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE COOLEST TEMPS OF
THE FALL WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE MARFA PLATEAU ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN 30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HENNIG

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG BEND WILL BE FIRST SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY RH/S WILL BE ABLE TO
FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT BY MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE IN ALIGNMENT
WITH A FAVORABLY POSITIONED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND ABOVE 20 MPH
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS MTNS AND
POSSIBLY IN THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHISOS MTNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  53  78  /  80  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                53  79  49  80  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  86  58  86  /  40  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  50   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  61  48  62  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  73  49  76  /  50  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   38  67  39  66  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  76  51  79  /  70  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  58  76  52  78  /  70  20  10  10
WINK TX                    56  77  48  82  /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

49/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
119 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
119 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010 /1219 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
MALJAMAR TO PECOS TO MARATHON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF A MALJAMAR
TO PECOS TO MARATHON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY COULD LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             10 N GIRVIN             31.21N 102.39W
10/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       CRANE              TX   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER AND LARGER HAIL 5-10 MILES NORTH OF GIRVIN. HAIL
            COVERS FM11 AND IS ONE INCH DEEP.

&&

SCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             ROYALTY                 31.37N 102.87W
10/21/2010  E1.75 INCH       WARD               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

SCHULDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

TXZ060-061-212315-
WINKLER-ECTOR-
527 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER AND SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOTREES AT
527 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

[NO.NE.YES] A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000
PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>