Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
228 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE SIDE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-6
KILOMETER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITHIN THE
RIDGE WITH MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS IMPLYING LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AGAIN SOME NEXT TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGESTING ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  91  67  90  /  10  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  94  65  92  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  93  68  93  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  86  64  86  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   66  92  66  92  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   58  85  58  85  /  50  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  92  66  91  /  20  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  93  67  91  /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                    69  95  68  94  /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

10/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
120 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
120 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 /1220 PM MDT WED SEP 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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