Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
155 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS AN EWD POSITION TODAY WHICH EXTENDS
ACRS ERN NM S INTO THE TRANS PECOS. REMNANT MCV/S WERE NOTED EARLIER
THIS MORNING...ONE ACRS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND ANOTHER IN SE NM.
A WEAKNESS IS NOTED IN 5H HEIGHTS ON NAM12 WHICH IS OPTIMISTIC IN
DEVELOPING PRECIP TODAY ACRS PB. WEAK SFC TROF REMAINS W WITH WEAK
5H WLY WINDS. ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TOO IN DEVELOPING
PRECIP ACRS PB TODAY. THUS SCT POPS ARE SUFFICIENT WITH HIEST POPS
WARRANTED ACRS MTNS AND SE NM...ISOLD/SLGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. 12Z MAF
SOUNDING SHOWS PW/S OVER 1.5" AND WITH MENTIONED LIGHT WINDS AT
5H STORM MOVEMENT MAY BE ON THE SLOW SIDE AND AT LEAST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO 20-25KT
BY 21Z PER NAM12/GFS SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL POSSIBLE TOO.
CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL APPEAR ACRS SRN NM TUE WHICH
WILL HOLD A WEAK W-NW MID LEVEL COMPONENT ACRS NW CWFA AND AS SUCH
THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP TUE PM. POPS ARE ORIENTED
IN THAT FASHION AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WED STR BUILDS
NWD INTO CNTRL NM WHICH FAVORS MORE OF NE MID LEVEL WIND ACRS PB
AND N ACRS SE NM SO AGAIN BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE ACRS THE
NW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE LOW END SLGHT CHANCE. VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN THUR. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS TUE-THUR WITH U20S
C ACRS PB AND AROUND 30C ACRS UPPER TRANS PECOS/SE NM. CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON TUE ACRS NW CWFA MAY HELP TEMPER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
BUT WED/THUR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT BEST FOR ALL AREAS. 85H
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT FRI SO HOT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SAT A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF WILL PASS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHING A FRONT S INTO PANHANDLE...BUT
MOSTLY LIKELY NOT ENUF PUSH TO MAKE IT INTO PB...POSSIBLY NEARING
THE N SUN PM IF ENUF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN THE
PANHANDLE. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOCATION OF STR IS IN QUESTION AND ATTP
WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  99  73  98  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 100  70 100  /  30  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  98  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  92  69  93  /  30  30  30  10
HOBBS NM                   68  99  69 100  /  30  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   63  93  60  93  /  40  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72 100  71 100  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73 100  74 101  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    73 103  73 103  /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
102 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-101130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
102 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010 /1202 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH NEAR SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

TXZ081-092215-
BIG BEND AREA-
453 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PERSIMMON GAP AT 451 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT US 385.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&