Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS EVENING.
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL IMPACT THE BIG BEND REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS ROUGHLY
ALONG A QUEEN NEW MEXICO TO NEAR VAN HORN LINE.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL RESIDE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST TODAY
VS. YESTERDAY. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
ONGOING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...BUT
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPEARS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS.
STILL...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER NORTH...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
HAVE LIMITED THE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
STRONGER. THE HI-RES RUC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY
FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THUS... THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW...BUT WITH A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ANY SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS STRENGTHENS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE
TO PUSH THE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED AND WE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010 /1244 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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