Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. CURRENTLY...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION JUST NORTH OF SPUR. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THUS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED REGIONS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM TRAINING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES LEADING TO
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY WILL REMAIN INTACT. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT...WITH CONVECTION
FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  93  71  97  /  60  30  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  96  65  99  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  74  95  73  98  /  40  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  70  97  /  40  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  89  65  91  /  10  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   64  93  65  95  /  40  30  30  10
MARFA TX                   63  92  59  91  /  30  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  96  70  98  /  50  30  30  10
ODESSA TX                  72  97  72  98  /  40  30  30  10
WINK TX                    72 102  69 103  /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...HOWARD...
     MARTIN...MITCHELL...SCURRY.

&&

78/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
217 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010 /117 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY EAST OF
AN ARTESIA TO CANDELARIA LINE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD.  ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY
BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. IN ADDITION... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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