Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LATEST RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...WITH CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED
ACROSS THE GUADALUPES AND INTO THE LEA COUNTY WHERE THE DRYLINE IS
LOCATED. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AS MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION WHERE LOCALLY BACKED FLOW WILL
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS THE 700-500MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
STRONGER ACROSS THESE AREAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              65  84  65  89  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                63  87  63  90  /  30  30  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  69  87  68  92  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  87  66  91  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  80  59  83  /  20  30  20  30
HOBBS NM                   63  85  63  86  /  40  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   56  86  55  85  /  30  30  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  85  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  66  85  66  89  /  40  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  91  69  95  /  40  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

76/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010 /1208 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPING WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

TXZ074-075-081-252215-
PECOS-BIG BEND AREA-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
437 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY AT
437 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

TXZ058-074-252200-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
WEST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOYAH AT 447
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN... AND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

TXZ058-059-067-252315-
LOVING-WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHWESTERN WARD AND WESTERN LOVING COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 10 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF ORLA AT
539 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

NMZ028-034-TXZ058-059-252345-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-LOVING-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN REEVES...SOUTHEASTERN
EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN LEA AND WESTERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT/545 PM MDT/...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
WERE LOCATED BETWEEN ORLA AND MALAGA AT 619 PM CDT/519 PM
MDT/...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

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