Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM KSGV TO THE
EASTERN BIG BEND...W/A LINE OF BACK-BUILDING SEVERE CONVECTION SOUTH
OF KFST.  MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE ANOTHER
EXPECTED SURGE OF STRATUS INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.  LATEST
NAM INITIALIZED BETTER ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...AND AS
SUCH...BRINGS THE STRATUS/DRYLINE CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST
OVERNIGHT THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.  GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING VLIFR
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AREN/T AS PESSIMISTIC.  STILL...IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNM AND KPEQ...WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT
MVFR.  NAM ALSO BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE NE CWA AFTER 06Z...FOR A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION KHOB AND KMAF.  FINALLY...MORE DRYLINE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS TO BE RESTRICTED TO
WESTERN TERMINALS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING ROCKIES TODAY AND LIFTING NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE STORMY PATTERN FOR REGION.  STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH SPINS
OVER THE WEST FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT
TROUGH.

STORMS FIRED EARLY TODAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY NOON AND THESE HAVE EXPANDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE.  THE DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR A SEMINOLE TO FORT STOCKTON LINE AS OF 19Z AND SHOULD
RETREAT BACK INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  A SEVERE STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN... LOWER TRANS PECOS... AND BIG BEND
THROUGH 800 PM CDT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND WEST TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS.  SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY
AS IT LOOKS THAT TRANS PECOS WESTWARD WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODERATED RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND
INTO THE 70S OVER THE EAST AS CLOUDS AND WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM COOLING MUCH.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING CONSISTENTLY TOO COOL
WITH LOWS SO INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL INCREASE TO
THE 90S LATER IN THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM... DRY... AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 7PM MDT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
132 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
132 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010 /1232 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS REGIONS
AND BIG BEND AREAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN...TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. THOUGH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE TRANS PECOS AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPING WEATHER AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASANT FARMS          31.68N 102.34W
05/24/2010  E65 MPH          ECTOR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND CAUSED ALUMINUM CARPORT TO BE BLOWN
            OVER AND TWISTED IN PLESANT FARMS.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ061-062-068-069-242015-
ECTOR-CRANE-MIDLAND-UPTON-
248 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN CRANE...NORTHWESTERN UPTON...SOUTHEASTERN
ECTOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANT FARMS AT 245 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE U.S. 385 BETWEEN PLEASANT FARMS AND ODESSA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             7 SSE GIRVIN            30.98N 102.34W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE GIRVIN            30.98N 102.34W
05/24/2010  E60.00 MPH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST 7 MILES SSE OF GIRVIN. SEVERAL
            LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

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