Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

257 
WGUS74 KMAF 252252
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

TXC135-329-252302-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-100925T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ECTOR-MIDLAND-
552 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN
MIDLAND AND EASTERN ECTOR COUNTIES...

AT 552 PM CDT...THE CONDITIONS LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAD CEASED...REMOVING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS PASSED...PONDING OF
WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SOME ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN
CAUTIOUS AND BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN IF WATER IS ENCOUNTERED TO
PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 10197 3176 10254 3208 10255 3208 10197

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MAF/S EASTERN ZONES. A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND EASTWARD. TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO PRESENT FROM NEAR
MALJAMAR TO ANDREWS...AND JUST EAST OF MIDLAND TO NEAR RANKIN.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVERGENT SFC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AHEAD OF THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (~2000 J/KG SBCAPE VIA LAPS) IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THEM ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THEY WILL THEY WILL LIKELY INTERACT SOON.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS. FURTHER EAST....THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING NEAR THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. THIS WILL ALSO BE A (MORE)
FAVORED AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FFA THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LEAST COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TO THE NORTHEAST...A VIGOROUS VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEAR IOWA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW MOVED INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND WITH SOME CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...WE HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THERE. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS (ABOUT 4F
BELOW NORMAL) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER FROPA GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ANTICIPATED. A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS ANY
REMAINING FOG AND STRATUS QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.

MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CHILLY MORNING TEMPS. THE
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED VERY CLOSE FOR THIS DAY SO WE STAYED NEAR IT
OR JUST BELOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A BLOCKING HIGH WILL SETUP
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKIES AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND ANOTHER CANADIAN PERTURBATION DIGS SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AMPLIFYING THE MID TO UPPER FLOW FURTHERMORE. VERY
LITTLE WILL CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A DOMINATING BLOCKING RIDGE ONLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. NEAR SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. WE HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO TO THE MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT DID
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS BASED ON 850MB TEMPS. WE
DID...HOWEVER...UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED WITH
REGARDS TO LOWS SINCE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 50
RANGE EACH MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PRESENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED FLOWS CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
PRESIDIO AND CANDELARIA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PRESIDIO
COUNTY. THE RIO GRANDE...3 MILES NORTH OF CANDELARIA...IS VERY
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND SHOULD REACH IT/CREST VERY SOON.
THE RIVER LEVELS THERE ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT TO BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. NEAR PRESIDIO THE RIO GRANDE
LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS...BUT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THEM NEAR MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL FORECASTS WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              63  78  53  79  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                62  80  57  83  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  87  61  81  /  50  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  82  57  84  /  50  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  75  54  80  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   61  80  52  80  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  75  48  78  /  50  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  80  51  81  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  63  80  55  81  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    63  83  54  85  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...
     GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REAGAN...
     SCURRY...UPTON.

&&

78/49

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-260100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010 /1244 PM MDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT. LOCAL FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL EXIST FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA.
OTHERWISE THE RIO GRANDE IS RUNNING HIGH FROM CANDELARIA...THROUGH
PRESIDIO...TO NEAR BOQUILLAS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      16 SSE COLORADO CITY    32.19N 100.75W
09/25/2010                   MITCHELL           TX   STORM CHASER

            18 INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED IN PLACES OVER ROAD 208
            SOUTH OF 644.

&&

SCHULDT