Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
656 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL
BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR THRESHOLDS UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD BUT THE RIDGE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED.  BY MIDWEEK A SECONDARY RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER NEW MEXICO... THIS SHOULD PUT AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK.

YES IT HAS BEEN VERY RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MOST OF THE LAST
WEEK.  THIS TREND WILL END ONE OF THESE DAYS... HOWEVER NOT YET.
EXPECT ANOTHER RAINY DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE EVENING SHIFTS TREND
OF KEEPING SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS
TRANS PECOS AS DISTURBANCE ROLLS AROUND UPPER RIDGE... THIS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.  EASTERN HALF OF AREA REMAINS IN DAY1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK BUT BELIEVE MORE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN
IT INDICATES.  PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY HAVE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE EDDY OUT...
EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL BE FROM FT DAVIS EASTWARD
TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO ELP UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO MOVED EAST TONIGHT.  REMAINS OF THIS LINE AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT HAVE PUSHED INTO EASTERN CWA AS OF
MID MORNING.   HAD 1 SMALL SHOWER MOVE OVER MAF AIRPORT THIS MORNING
AND DROP 0.8 INCH AT THE OFFICE IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES... SO BELIEVE
THE OTHER CELLS ON RADAR ARE ALSO PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
DO HAVE A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE AREA.  DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S
EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CNM.  MAF SOUNDING HAS BEEN RUNNING
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN HAVE PERSONALLY SEEN HERE AND MORE LIKE A SOUNDING NEAR
THE GULF.

BASED ON RECENT DAYS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER MET GUIDANCE.  MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS LOTS OF PRECIP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND ACROSS UPPER
TRANS PECOS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON MONDAY MODEL QPF DEVELOPS HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS THERE.  FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING WATCH INTO MONDAY BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO.

IN THE EXTENDED TEMPERATURES WARM BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW
NORMAL AS GROUND WILL BE WET.  AFTER A FEW DRIER DAYS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN
     LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...
     GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
     CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
527 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010 /427 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY.  SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND