Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

099 
WGUS74 KMAF 130238
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
838 PM MDT MON APR 12 2010

NMC015-TXC109-130445-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100413T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-CULBERSON-
838 PM MDT MON APR 12 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT/1145 PM
CDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EDDY
COUNTIES...

AT 828 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED LOW WATER CROSSINGS WERE FLOODED
NEAR PINE SPRINGS ALONG AND NEAR US 180. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN
AND AROUND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PINE SPRINGS...
MCKITTRICK CANYON...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STREAMS AND DRAINAGES AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DELAWARE RIVER...NICKEL CREEK...BLACK RIVER AND DARK CANYON.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 10480 3177 10493 3190 10493 3191 10491
      3200 10492 3201 10485 3209 10485 3209 10473

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARRIVE IN
FST AROUND 03Z AND WORKING NWWD COVERING ALL SITES BY OR BEFORE
06Z. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS RESULTED
IN STOUT SE WINDS AT ALL SITES. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS OF 20KTS
WILL HOLD THRU 06Z AND THEN DECREASE 10-15KTS BY 12Z WITH LIGHTEST
WINDS AT WRN SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING
TO NEAR 18Z TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH PRECIP
AND WHAT WILL BE THE TRIGGER. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TODAY MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
STABILITY. HOWEVER 500MB UPPER AIR SOUNDING PLOTS SHOW A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS FROM AROUND LBB TO AUS THAT MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CU ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS AIDED IN
DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FIRST AND
SECOND PERIODS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA. TOMORROW THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE GONE WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LOW CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN TOMORROW EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER CREATING A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE BEST BET TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES OF VARYING STRENGTHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE CREATING A FLOOR FOR LOW
TEMPS AND HAVE GONE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE ON LOWS MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
229 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010 /129 PM MDT MON APR 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EDDY COUNTY...THE VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...AND THE GUADALUPE...APACHE...AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER
AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEEK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS WEEK.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

TXZ079>081-122345-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-BIG BEND AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
612 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAIL AND 40 TO 55 MPH WINDS
AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
LAJITAS ALONG HIGHWAY 170 AT 611 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAJITAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
711 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

NMZ027-028-TXZ258-130045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
611 PM MDT MON APR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
MDT/745 PM CDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF QUEEN AT 610 PM
MDT/710 PM CDT/...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM MAY MOVE
NEAR QUEEN OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF QUEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
715 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

TXZ079-080-130045-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
715 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRESIDIO AT 713 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&