Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WAS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST WITH SBCAPES FROM AROUND 2000
TO 4000 J/KG WEST TO EAST.  A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...
NOTICEABLE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CONVECTION CONTINUED TO SWIRL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A HINT OF WESTWARD MOTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...POSSIBLY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CALVED FROM A COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF BROWNSVILLE.  THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE WAS LET
GO EARLIER TODAY...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOCATIONS TO SURPASS THE
CRITERIA OF LOWS OF 75 OR GREATER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR
GREATER...FOR TWO DAYS OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THINK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION INITIATING EITHER DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV...OR FUTURE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.  EITHER WAY...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH 08/00Z AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES SOMEWHAT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM ARE
INDICATED IN THESE AREAS...AND THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE ABOVE MID LEVEL FEATURES.  0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT
VERY STRONG AGAIN TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WELL
ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THE
REST DUE TO CAPE VALUES/UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...THEN HAIL SINCE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE STILL
GENERALLY ABOVE 10KFT AGL.  PWATS WERE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND
CONSIDERING THE DISPARATE FLOW ALOFT OVER MANY AREAS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.  CONVECTION COULD SPREAD EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY/S
CONVECTION COLLIDING WITH A MYRIAD OF WELL HIDDEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN FROM CONVECTION LATE LAST
NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON IT/S WESTERN PERIPHERY INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST TEXAS.  WILL STILL CARRY A LOW
ORDER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
TO THE BIG BEND REGION THOUGH WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS PROGGED...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...AND SHEAR STILL PUNY SO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THEREAFTER...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND EXPECT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DAILY ALONG THE DRYLINE AS DISCRETE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...SINCE SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  WILL FOREGO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/
CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY MID
WEEK.  THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WILL AGAIN BE THE FAVORED AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              72  97  71  98  /  10   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 102  69 105  /  50   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  72  99  75  97  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 101  73 103  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  70 101  /  50  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67 101  69 102  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   61  95  61  99  /  50  40  40  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  98  72 101  /  20   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  72  99  73 102  /  20   0   0  10
WINK TX                    73 102  73 106  /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

49/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
110 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-081815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
110 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010 /1210 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO THE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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