Tornado Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BIG FOCUS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OUT IN OKLAHOMA AND ITS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN NORTH TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THOUGH
DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO
LINE SEGMENTS.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS. THOUGH NO PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXEMPT FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FLIPPIN...
TO HOT SPRINGS...TO ARKADELPHIA. IN THIS AREA...MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN THE GREATEST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...AND
WITH INCREASING HELICITY VALUES...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CLEAR CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT...WITH IT CLEARING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES IT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

AFTER THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BLOW IN ON CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER THE DELTA
REGION/PRAIRIES OF EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY.

UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID SOUTH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THIS WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
COVER...KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND ACT TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS. BY SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MID MARCH.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER ARKANSAS UNTIL THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO NEAR ARKANSAS TUESDAY.
THESE LOWS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF
LOW PRESSURES TO ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENCROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  65  40  55 /  80  20  20  30
CAMDEN AR         50  72  44  61 /  80  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       44  57  37  50 /  80  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  69  42  58 /  80  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  69  43  59 /  90  10  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     54  75  47  65 /  90  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      43  67  42  58 /  80  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  61  38  53 /  80  20  20  30
NEWPORT AR        51  66  41  57 /  80  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     53  71  45  63 /  90  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  66  41  58 /  80  10  20  30
SEARCY AR         48  69  42  59 /  70  10  20  30
STUTTGART AR      51  69  44  60 /  80  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
430 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF ARKANSAS TODAY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST ARKANSAS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND
STRENGTHEN AS THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING AS THESE STORMS PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO EXISTS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WEST
ARKANSAS AND A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
ARKANSAS.

AREA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY
UPDATES AS THE LATEST DATA IS ANALYZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MIDDAY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62/56

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