Tornado Warning 15, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NORTH ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

FOCUS IN SHORT TERM ON IMPENDING SVR WX THREAT THIS MORNING.  LATEST
ANALYSIS SHOWING STILL SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG OVER SRN HALF OF CWA WITH MODEST MLCIN OF 50
TO 100 J/KG.  WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OVER ERN TX WAS SHOWING
LITTLE SIGNS OF LETTING UP IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THAT OF SRN
AR THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS NOW WEAKENED/DISORGANIZED SOME AS IT
APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX. A FEW RENEGADE CELLS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF LINE AS H5 SPEED MAX/SHRTWV AIDS IN SYNOPTIC LIFT NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THOUGH TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...WE MAY BE SPARED BY AFOREMENTIONED CIN KEEPING STORMS AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND A LULL IN THE LLJ AS SHV/LZK VWP AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AOB 30KTS AT H85 WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
TURNING NOTED AT SHV. MAIN LINE SHOULD ENTER THE SW CWA BETWEEN 4
AND 5 AM WITH SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT THE NOON HOUR BEFORE
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH ENDING SVR THREAT. LONG STORY SHORT...SWRN HALF OF CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE 2 ROUNDS OF STRONG/SVR STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SVR STORMS OVER THE SERN CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AS SOME DIURNAL REBOUND IS ATTEMPTED. NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I30/US67 CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION BUT SVR THREAT SHOULD
BE LOWER AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE NW OF SFC LOW TRACK. FLOOD
THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL AS THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL BE
MUCH LOWER DUE TO YESTERDAY/S HEAVY PRECIP.

A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN ON SUN AFTERNOON AS UPR LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE. WILL BRING INCREASING POPS INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IN
THE PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BE MOVING TOWARD ARKANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT CONTINUES IN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN
EASTERN ARKANSAS BUT WILL EXIT SOON. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG
IS ACROSS THE NORTH. MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. IFR
AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING...BUT ENDING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  68  50  67 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         55  76  49  76 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       50  65  47  61 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  71  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  73  52  71 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  77  51  74 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      52  71  48  69 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  51  66  47  64 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        53  69  51  67 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  73  52  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  71  46  68 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         52  71  49  71 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  72  52  71 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND OF
STORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THESE STORMS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

REDEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
OCCUR OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SOME STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...CREATING POTENTIAL FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE TODAY OVER ARKANSAS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS TODAY. MOST STRONG AND SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND END
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

63