Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDS ONCE AGAIN NOTED ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN. MID AFTN
READINGS IN THE 90S...WITH RESULTANT HEAT INDICES RUNNING FROM 105
TO 110 DEGREES. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DROPPED
INTO NRN AR. MEANWHILE...ACTUAL CDFNT WAS SITUATED VCNTY OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR ACRS SW MO/NE OK WHERE SCTD CONVECTION CONTS TO DVLP.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FCST TRENDS THRU THE PD.
THE UPR HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT TEMPS WL CONT TO RETROGRADE WWD
IN THE COMING DAYS...ALLOWING UPR FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH TO BCM
NWLY. CDFNT TO THE NW OF AR ATTM WL DROP SWD INTO THE STATE TNGT AND
FRI...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA CONTG VCNTY OF THE BNDRY. SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FNT...
SO HEAT INDICES OVR SRN AR MAY BE A CONCERN. FOR NOW...WL ALLOW HEAT
ADVY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AND MONITOR LATER FCST TRENDS.

UNSETTLED WX WL LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
CONTG SMALL CHCS OF PRECIP. UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO BLD BACK EWD LATE IN
THE PD...WITH HOT TEMPS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH. RAIN CHCS WL
ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE...WITH ONLY WDLY SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED. HEAT ADVY CRITERIA WL AGAIN BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SE
US CONUS....WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BRING KEEP HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SHOW
WARMER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
100 TO 105. HAVE LEFT POPS IN TO FOLLOW A MAINLY DIURNAL CYCLE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...62/224

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO ARKANSAS TODAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER IN MOST
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING TO THE WEST TOWARD THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD
ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AREAS TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND THE FRONT MAY
MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE WASHING OUT. THE FRONT WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.

THE HIGH WILL HEAD BACK TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN. ONCE THE
HIGH IS ESTABLISHED...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

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