Tornado Warning 6, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1257 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO WILL
TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDTD FOR TOR WATCH 273...VALID TIL 00Z. CDFNT STILL NE-SW
ACRS PA AT 17Z. A BKN LN OF CNVCTN INTO PTMC HIGHLANDS ALREADY.
FWD MOTION 30-35 KT. DMGG WNDS THE MJR THREAT...HWVR GIVEN THE
SHEAR VALUES...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOL TOR.

17Z SNDG HAS JUST BEEN LAUNCHED. MODIFIED 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOW APPROXIMATELY 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE THAT MAY BECOME REALIZED
MID-AFTN ACROSS SOUTHERN MD WHERE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSIST. ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING BUT 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE BY THE
TIME THE LINE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHEAR/DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MASON- DIXON LINE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55 KT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY.
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND HELICITY VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
WELL.

HIGHS TDA SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY AFTN - ONE FINAL DAY OF U80S/A90.
AFTR THAT RGN GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WL USHER IN SVRL DAYS OF
RESPITE TO THE ABV AVG TEMPS/HUMIDITY THE RNG HAS BEEN XPRNCG.
TEMPS/DWPTS SHOULD BEGIN DROPPING BY LATE AFTN IN THE WRN PART OF
THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TNGT FNT WL BE OFF THE CST BY THE START OF THE TNGT PD...W/ ANY
RESIDUAL RW/ TRW E OF THE BAY BY 03Z. WINDS WL DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVE..SKIES CLRG OUT AFTR MDNGT. LOWS WL DROP INTO THE 50S W
OF I-95...L60S E W/ DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE L50S AREAWIDE. A VERY
PLSNT NGT...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COUPLE OF DAYS OFF /SO TO SPEAK/ FROM THE RECENT SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS ON THE WAY. MON-TUE WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS FOR THE MID
ATLC...AS THE LAST WAVES OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PUSH OFF THE NRN ATLC COAST EARLY MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NW - BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE U70S ON MON AFTN...W/ A WEAK NWLY WIND AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. TUE WILL BEGIN IN SIMILAR FASHION BUT END OF THE W/ THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WX-MAKER FOR THE REGION WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK-MOVING AND
POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCKED INTO THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MID MS VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES
OF MCS-LIKE FEATURES AFFECTING THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NRN MISSOURI
TO ERN OH FROM LATE MON THRU EARLY WED. A SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORT LOBE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN FROM BEHIND ON WED /FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION/ TO HELP RE-DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THE SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE MID ATLC DURING THE DAY ON WED. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED
W/ THIS SCENARIO AND ANY MCS-TYPE FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE
GUIDED SEWD...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON WED - DOWN TOWARD THE VA
TIDEWATER REGION.

XTNDD...AS LOPRES DPNS OFF CAPE COD...H5 RDGG/SFC HIPRES WL SETTLE
INTO THE RGN THU-FRI. CUD STILL BE AN ISOL TRRN INDUCED TSRA THU
PRIOR TO DP LYR SUBSIDENCE. OTRW...PT-MOSUN SKIES AND NEAR NRML
TEMPS.

AS CAN BE XPCTD...GDNC VARIABILITY ENTERS THE PICTURE BY NXT WKND.
SYNOPTICALLY...WUD XPCT THE RDG TO MV OFFSHR...WHICH WUD ALLW WAA AS
WELL AS DIURNAL TSRA TO RTN.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE TERMINALS TDA WILL GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS DURING
THE AFTN. TRIED TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF CONVECTION BY INCLUDING A
3-HR TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA/GUSTY WINDS SOMETIME BETWEEN 17-22Z
DEPENDING ON WHICH TERMINAL.

AFTER FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND THEN NW AROUND
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN ON MON AND EXIT TUE. A FAST-MOVING LOW
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY WED...EXITING OFF THE COAST LATER THAT
EVENING BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. LATEST MARINE OBS SHOW SW
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF TIDAL
POTOMAC AND MD CHSPK BAY THIS MRNG. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25
KT EVERYWHERE TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
THE WATERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN. SMWS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED THIS AFTN SO MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FCSTS. AN

SCA CONTINUES OVRNGT ON THE CHES BAY AS WINDS TURN NW AND CHANNEL
DOWN THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MON/TUE. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THRU THE AREA ON WED - BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AGAIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS/JRK
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...GMS/HTS
AVIATION...JRK/GMS
MARINE...JRK/GMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1249 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
071000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1249 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY STORM
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501-
502-WVZ050>055-501>504-071000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-
CULPEPER-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1249 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY STORM
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1259 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

VAZ027-WVZ050-055-501-502-061730-
SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-WESTERN GRANT WV-EASTERN GRANT
1259 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH...HARDY...HAMPSHIRE...
WESTERN GRANT AND EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 1258 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF STREBY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 7939 3927 7903 3924 7898 3927 7894
      3929 7851 3874 7860 3901 7933 3907 7930
      3908 7934 3911 7936 3921 7931 3920 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 281DEG 55KT 3910 7926

SBK

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