Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Anne Arundel County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE LOW BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG WINDS HAVE CONTD THIS AFTN ACRS FCST AREA AMID UNSEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 80S MOST AREAS. STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND LMTD
MSTR WILL LMT TSTM DVLPMT THIS AFTN EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE INSTBY WILL BE GREATER. SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT WIND
FIELDS ARE STRONG. ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS...BUT QUESTIONS RMN AS TO XPCD STRENGTH OF
UPDRAFTS GIVEN WEAK INSTBY PROFILES. EXPECTATION IS THAT ORGANIZED
CNVCTN WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS PAST THE MTNS THIS AFTN.

CDFNT MOVES THRU LATE THIS EVE AND SHUD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
FOR A CNVCTV LINE TO MOVE THRU. HAVE RETAINED POPS FOR TNGT FOR
NWRN HALF OF FCST AREA...BUT CVRG SHUD DECR WITH SEWD EXTENT.
STRONG WIND PROFILE SHUD OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND MAY PROMOTE
GUSTY WINDS THRU MUCH OF TNGT. HAVE INCRD SPEEDS SLGTLY ABV
GUIDANCE AND SIDED WITH WARMER MINIMA AS A RESULT.

WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOW FUEL MSTR HAVE COMBINED TO
YIELD RED FLAG CONDS FOR PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BLW FOR DETAILS.

UPSLP SHRA MAY CONT IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS WNWLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVCTN MAY YIELD LOW-LVL INSTBY ALONG WRN SLOPES. HAVE RETAINED
POPS FOR TYPICAL UPSLP ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT MRNG AS COLD AIR ADVCTN INCRS. MAXIMA
CLOSER TO NRML XPCD. UPSLP SHRA MAY CONT IN SCT CVRG DURG SAT MRNG
BUT SHUD WANE BY LATE SAT AFTN.

LOW-LVL COLD AIR ADVCTN SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHALLOW
LOW-LVL INSTBY ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA SAT MRNG...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO BKN CLD DECK 3.5-4.0 KFT. THESE CLDS SHUD ERODE BY MID-MRNG
ACRS SRN ZONES AND WILL BCM LESSER IN CVRG ELSEWHERE BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SAT NGT AND SUN. NW FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY DRY DUE
TO THE DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE UPSLOPE
OR WESTERN SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PROFILES APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX OR TURN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SAT NGT AND SUN NGT. ATTM...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
WITH THE GROUND BEING TOO WARM.

A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN LOPRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND HIPRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE AFTN SUN.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
THE NRN ATLANTIC ERY NEXT WEEK. HIPRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER ERN CANADA MAY DRAG A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FAR OUT...STILL
TO ERY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES AND HOW FAR
SOUTH IT MAKES IT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLGTLY TNGT. GENLY VFR CONDS XPCD EXCEPT
IN CNVCTN. CDFNT PASSAGE XPCD TNGT. NWLY WINDS WILL INCR SAT MRNG
AND GUST 25-30 KT AS COLD AIR ADVCTN STRENGTHENS. CLD DECK 3.5-4.0
KFT IS PSBL AS WELL SAT MRNG TO EARLY SAT AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS SUN AND ERY NEXT WEEK. MAIN IMPACT TO TERMINALS
SUN WILL BE THE BREEZY NW WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY MON AS HIPRES BUILDS
OVRHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADZY BEING MET SOLIDLY. WIND WILL DECR SLGTLY TNGT...
SO CURRENT ADZY LAYOUT TNGT SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND GUSTS DVLP SAT
MRNG AGAIN IN NWLY FLOW...AND WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADZY ALL ZONES.

SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SAT EVE. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO BELOW SCA LVLS ACROSS THE COOLER
WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AS WELL AS THE NRN MD CHSPK BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT NGT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT.

THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SUN.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS MON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVRHD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 KT OR GREATER HAVE
MATERIALIZED ACRS A LARGE PORTION OF MD AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE SHENANDOAH VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG
WRNG FOR THESE AREAS GIVEN CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30
PCT AND WINDS XPCD TO CONT WITH CURRENT SPEEDS FOR NEXT FEW HRS.

ATTM HAVE LEFT MD PORTION OF DC SUBURBS OUT GIVEN WEAKER SUSTAINED
WIND FIELDS IN THESE AREAS. IF WINDS INCR...THESE AREAS MAY NEED
TO BE INCLUDED.

WINDS WILL INCR AGAIN ON SAT...BUT CVRG OF RAIN TNGT WILL DICTATE
NEEDS FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES TMW. ATTM WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH
HEADLINES FOR SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     010-011-014-017-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ021-025-
     026.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

KRAMAR/KLEIN

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