Wind Advisory 5, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A COUPLE WINDY DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ENERGY
TRAVELING NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A THERMAL
RIDGE AT 850MB WILL EXPAND INTO WESTERN AREAS TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO 700MB WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE STRONG 700MB WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS TO
PREVENT THE DEEP MIXING TO TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL ALSO STAY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH A PACIFIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES WARMER TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. JDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM HEADED OUR WAY WAY SCOOTING QUICKLY EAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...SCHEDULED THEN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN OUT EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WHILE TIGHTER MID
AND UPPER LEVEL GRADIENTS ALSO SHOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. STILL...WIND WILL INCREASE AS CYCLONE
DEEPENS TO OUR NORTHEAST PULLING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE AREA. VERY POSSIBLE THESE WINDS WILL ACHIEVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OR MORE OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
EVEN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW FOR A POTENTIAL OF HIGH-BASED SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOWEST ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WETTING SHOWERS...
THESE WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE NEW FORECAST GIVEN THE ADDED
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE UPPER LOW PULLS FURTHER
EAST BRINGING IN DRIER MID LEVEL FLOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL WITH MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT. TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL KICK IN STRONG EARLY TO MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY POTENT UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DISCONNECTED FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER NORTH...SO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION SUCH AS PORTRAYED BY THE ECMWF WOULD BE FAVORED. THIS
MAY DELAY ADDING SHOWER OR THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THE NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREME TODAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST DANGER WILL BE ON THE CAPROCK...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE ELEVATED FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND THUS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH MORE ELEVATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. STILL THERE WILL BE REASONS FOR CONCERN. FIRST...
GRADIENT SUPPORTED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL.
ALSO...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED
MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL THEN TO TAP INTO EVEN STRONGER FLOW FURTHER OFF THE
GROUND. IF THESE SHOWERS FORM...THEN VERY STRONG GUSTS SEEM
LIKELY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA APPEARS TO BE CLOSEST TO
MEETING FIRE WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST ROW OF
COUNTIES...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A BIT OF A STRETCH. FOR NOW...WE
WILL MENTION THE THREAT WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION
PORTION AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  37  54  34  59 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         73  41  57  36  60 /   0  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  42  59  37  59 /   0  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     78  41  61  39  60 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  63  39  60 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   79  44  65  38  61 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    79  45  65  40  62 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     73  47  63  42  62 /   0  10  20  20  10
SPUR          75  48  67  42  62 /   0   0  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  51  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

01/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010

TXZ021>044-271015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
509 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MAY LEAD TO WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...
THESE STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY COULD AGAIN CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.